[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zones Madeira, Canarias, Agadir and Tarfaya through the
next 24 hours. Wave heights of 12-16 ft are also expected in the
area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at the
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from 14N
southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection extend 180 nm on west side of the wave from 02N-
10N between 23W-27W, and 100 nm on the east side of the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W from 13N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from
05N-13N between 42W-49W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W from
16N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends offshore near the coast of Senegal
from 13N16W to 12N18W. The ITCZ extends east of the tropical
wave from 07N27W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection related to
the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 27W-
38W ,and between 39W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to build across the basin in the wake
of a frontal system. At this time, a 1017 mb high is over Mexico
near 23N98W. A surface trough extends in the SW Gulf from 18N93W
to 23N96W. A few showers are in the vicinity of the trough axis
from 23N-25N between 94W-97W. Second trough is located along the
Yucatan Peninsula from 17N91W to 21N89W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are present from 19N-20N between 90W-91W. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate easterly winds to the eastern half of the
basin and light east to southeast in the SW Gulf.

A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Thu night, followed
by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will extend
from Tampa to Veracruz, Mexico by Fri afternoon. Strong to near
gale force northerly winds are expected west of the front off the
Mexican coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Fri through Sat night.
Surface ridging will then dominate the basin through Mon evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Relatively dry air covers most of the northern half of the basin
with scattered showers near Hispaniola and South of Cuba. However,
over the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough paired
with an inverted trough at upper levels are inducing scattered
moderate convection south of 12N between 76W-82W. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades prevailing across the
eastern half of the basin, while moderate winds are noted in the
SW Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in Atlantic
waters and the south-central Caribbean through Sat as strong high
pressure moves eastward north of the area. Winds and seas will
diminish Sat and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin and the Gale Warning over the far east
Atlantic.

A cold front extends along the W Atlantic enters the forecast
area near 31N73W to 30N75W and continues as a dissipating front
to 28N81W with scattered showers in the vicinity of the boundary.
To the east, a surface trough extends from 20N71W to 29N68W.
Scattered showers are 200 nm on either side of the trough and
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is concentrated
from 28N-30N between 64W-68W. Surface ridge prevails across most
of the basin, anchored by a 1031 mb highs centered near 38N34W.
The reflection of an upper level low is analyzed as a surface
trough that extends from 25N34W to 32N33W with showers and storms
to the east of the trough from 25N-31N between 27W-32W.

A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Fri
morning, and reach from 31N69W to the Florida Keys by Fri evening.
Fresh to near gale force northerly winds and building seas are
expected west of the front over northern waters Fri and Sat. Winds
and seas will diminish Sat night through Sun evening.

$$
MTorres
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