[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071138
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zones Madeira, Canarias, Agadir and Tarfaya through the
next 24 hours. Wave heights of 12-16 ft are also expected in the
area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at the
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W from 14N
southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection extend 200 nm on west side of the wave from
02N-10N between 24W-27W. Scattered showers are also seen 260 nm
on the SE side of the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 14N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from
05N-13N between 43W-49W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W from
16N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W from 17N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 08N-12N between 76W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends offshore near the coast of Senegal
from 12N16W to 11N18W. The ITCZ extends east of the tropical
wave from 06N27W to 06N44W. Aside from the convection related to
the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 03N-09N between 27W-36W and from 06N-13N
between 41W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to build across the basin in the wake
of a frontal system. At this time, a 1017 mb high is over Mexico
near 22N98W. A surface trough is located in the Bay of Campeche
near 22N92W to 18N91W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of
the trough. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds on
the eastern half of the basin and light east to southeast winds
west of the trough.

Cold front moving into the northern Gulf tonight will be followed
by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will extend
from Tampa to Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale
force northerly winds are expected west of the front off the
Mexican coast Fri through Sat night. Surface ridging will prevail
across the basin through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Relatively dry air covers the northern half of the basin with
scattered showers in the Windward Passage and South of Cuba.
However, over the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon
trough paired with an inverted trough at upper levels and
tropical wave moving across the area are inducing scattered
moderate to isolated  strong convection south of 13N between 76W-
83W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
prevailing across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate
winds are noted in the SW Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in Atlantic
waters and across the south-central Caribbean through Sat as high
pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region Sat and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin and the Gale Warning over the far east
Atlantic.

A cold front extends along the W Atlantic enters the forecast
area near 31N72W with scattered moderate convection SE of the
front. To the S, a surface trough extends from 29N69W to 21N72W.
Scattered moderate convection is concentrated from 27N-30N
between 64W-68W. Surface ridge prevails across most of the basin,
anchored by a 1031 mb highs centered near 38N33 keeping a tight
gradient across the Atlantic. Scatterometer data indicate moderate
to fresh easterly trades dominating from 18N to 08N. A surface
trough that extends from 32N33W to 25N34W with showers and storms
180 nm east of the trough.

A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida Fri
morning, reach from 31N68W to the Florida Keys Fri night, and
from 31N65W to the straits of Florida Sat. Strong to near gale
force winds and building seas are expected north of the front
across northern waters Fri night and Sat. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening.

$$
MMTorres
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