[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zones Madeira, Canarias, Agadir and Tarfaya through the
next 24 hours. Wave heights of 12-16 ft are also expected in the
area. Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast at the
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from 14N
southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection
is related to this wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 13N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
in the northern portion of the wave from 05N-13N between 38W-48W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 65W from
15N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the wave between 60W-70W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection
is related to this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains across Africa. The ITCZ extends from
06N23W to 05N39W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is
noted within 240 nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to build across the basin in the wake
of a frontal system. At this time, a 1020 mb high is centered
over central Mexico near 26N103W. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate easterly winds across the basin.

The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf early on
Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The
front will pass SE of the Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near gale
force northerly winds are expected west of the front off the
Mexican coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Fri and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Relatively dry air covers most of the northern half of the basin.
However, over the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon
trough paired with an inverted trough at upper levels are
inducing scattered moderate convection south of 14N between 80W-
85W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
prevailing across the western half of the basin, while moderate
easterly winds are noted east of 70W.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in Atlantic
waters and the south-central Caribbean through Sat morning as
high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas will
diminish Sat and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin and the Gale Warning over the far east
Atlantic.

A cold front extends along the W Atlantic enters the forecast
area near 31N76W to 29N81W with scattered showers. To the east, a
surface trough extends from 29N71W to 21N72W. A surface ridge
prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a pair of 1030 mb
and 1031 mb highs centered along 38N. The reflection of an upper
level low is analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 33N33W
to 24N32W.

The next cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida
on Fri, and reach from 31N65W to the Florida Keys on Sat. Fresh to
near gale force northerly winds and building seas are expected
west of the front over northern waters Fri and Sat. Winds and seas
will diminish Sat night through Sun night.

$$

ERA
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