[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force winds are forecast by METEO-FRANCE, for the marine
zones that are near the coast of Morocco: AGADIR and TARFAYA.
Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: www.meteofrance.com/ previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/21W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 02N to 05N. Isolated moderate within
300 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 02N to 06N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to the
east of the tropical wave from 08N to 13N. It is possible that
other nearby precipitation may be more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. This wave is moving through
the southern part of an Atlantic Ocean-to-SE Caribbean Sea upper
level trough. Precipitation: Nearby widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong, that is from 13N southward from 64W eastward,
has been moving westward with time from the Atlantic Ocean, off
the coasts of Guyana and Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from 18N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is accompanying this wave at the
moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along
07N22W 04N32W 05N39W 07N42W 04N49W. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate to strong within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 27W and 31W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 420 nm to the north of the ITCZ between the 41W
tropical wave and 50W, and from 10N southward between 54W and
60W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front passes through the Florida west coast,
about halfway between Clearwater and Cross City, to 28N86W in
the Gulf of Mexico, to 25N90W in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
accompanying this front at the moment.

A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early on
Friday. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas with the
cold front. The front will pass SE of the Gulf of Mexico by
Saturday night. Strong northerly winds are expected west of the
front off the Mexican coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz on
Friday and Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean, toward
Guadeloupe, and into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong,
that is from 13N southward from 64W eastward, has been moving
westward with time from the Atlantic Ocean, off the coasts of
Guyana and Venezuela.

An upper level trough extends from SE Cuba to eastern
Honduras/NE Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Windward Passage.

Fresh to strong trade winds, and building sea heights, are
forecast in the Atlantic Ocean waters, and in the south central
Caribbean Sea, through Saturday morning. High pressure will be
strengthening to the north of the area. The trade winds and the
sea heights will diminish on Saturday and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N77W to Florida near 29N82W, about
halfway between Orlando and Gainesville. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong to the north and northwest
of the line that runs through 32N68W to 26N80W at the Florida
coast. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 70W westward , Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico to 90W, from
Cuba northward. One surface trough is along 31N68W 26N70W 21N71W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 75 nm on either side of the line that runs from 27N69W
beyond 32N65W. A second surface trough is along 27N77W 21N76W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N32W. A
surface trough is along 32N31W 23N33W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 26N northward between
27W and 35W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 20N northward from 50W eastward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N to 27N between 44W and
45W.

A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on
Friday. The front will reach from 31N65W to the Florida Keys on
Saturday. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are
expected north of the front in the northern waters on Friday and
Saturday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish
from Saturday night through Sunday night.

$$
mt
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