[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France near the coast of
Morocco, in the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya, from 06/0000 UTC
until 06/1200 UTC. Wave heights of 12-16 ft are also expected in
the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 14N
southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is in the southern portion of the wave from 03N-08N
between 17W-21W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 13N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the
northern portion of the wave from 08N-10N between 37W-40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 15N southward,
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are near the
Windward Islands from 09N-13N between 58W-63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are over and
south of Hispaniola and in NW Venezuela, but little to no shower
activity is seen over the waters of the Caribbean in association
with this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 87W extends from the
Gulf of Honduras near 17N southward across Central America and
into the east Pacific. The tropical wave is moving W at 10 kt.
Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis over Central
America and the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends offshore near the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W. The ITCZ starts west of the tropical
wave from 06N21W to 04N29W to 05N35W, then continues W of a second
tropical wave from 06N42W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection
near the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen
along the ITCZ from 04N-09N between 21W-30W, and from 05N-08N
between 41W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 29N83W to 28N86W, then continue as a
stationary front from that point to 25N91W. Scattered showers are
seen over the southern portion of the Gulf south of 25N. The
convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence and upper-
level diffluence. The ASCAT pass showed moderate to fresh N-NE
winds to the west of the surface trough. Elsewhere, isolated
moderate showers are seen off the lower Texas coast.

A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Fri, followed by
fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will extend
from the Straits of Florida to Veracruz Mexico Sat night. Strong
northerly winds are expected west of the front off the Mexican
coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Fri and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers most of the northern Caribbean. However,
a weak upper-level inverted trough that extends from the Windward
Passage to the NW Caribbean Sea is inducing some showers north
of Jamaica and in the Windward Passage. In the far SW Caribbean,
the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection south of 12N between 76W-83W. ASCAT
pass continues to show strong NE to E trades in the south-central
Caribbean from 11N-13N between 73W-77W.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas are expected in Atlantic
waters and the south-central Caribbean through Sat morning as
high pressure strengthens north of the area. Winds and seas will
diminish Sat and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front along the W Atlantic enters the forecast area near
31N80W to 30N81W near Jacksonville, Florida. A surface trough
is ahead of the front near 30N79W to 28N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen along the boundary. To the southeast, two
separate troughs are observed. One trough is from 22N75W to
25N76W. Convection is very limited with this wave. The second
trough is to the east from 21N71W to 30N67W. Scattered moderate
convection extends along the trough from 21N-30N between 67W-
69W, enhanced by upper-level divergence. An upper level low
and trough at the surface is inducing scattered moderate
convection from 26N31W to 32N29W.

A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Fri,
and reach from 31N65W to the Florida Keys on Sat. Fresh to strong
NE winds and building seas are expected north of the front over
northern waters Fri and Sat. Winds and seas will diminish on Sun.

$$
MTorres
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