[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France near the coast of
Morocco, in the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya, from 06/0000 UTC
until 06/1200 UTC. Wave heights of 12-16 ft are also expected in
the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 14N
southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 100 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 04N to 08N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 13N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm
to the east of the tropical wave and within 90 west of the
tropical wave from 07N-09N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W, from 15N southward,
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 09N-
12N between 58W-63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are over Hispaniola and NW
Venezuela, but little to no shower activity is seen over the
waters of the Caribbean in association with this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 87W extends from the
Gulf of Honduras near 17N southward across Central America and
into the east Pacific. The tropical wave is moving W at 10-15 kt.
Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis over Central
America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to
08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 05N36W, then continues W
of a tropical wave from 05N41W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection
near the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen
along the ITCZ from 03N-08N between 20W-28W, and from 05N-09N
between 41W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle near 29N85W
to 26N87W to 21N91W. Scattered showers are seen over portions of
the southern portion of the Gulf south of 25N. The convection is
being enhanced by upper-level divergence and upper-level diffluence.
The ASCAT pass showed moderate to fresh N-NE winds to the west of
the surface trough. Elsewhere, isolated moderate showers are seen
off the lower Texas coast.

The surface trough will dissipate tonight while a new trough
develops in the Bay of Campeche ahead of a cold front that will
move into the far NW Gulf by early Fri. The front will shift S and
reach from the Straits of Florida toward Veracruz Mexico by Sat
afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds are expected W of the
front Fri through Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers most of the northern Caribbean. However,
a weak upper-level inverted trough that extends from the Windward
Passage to Nicaragua is inducing an isolated tstorm over Cuba and
Hispaniola. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon
trough is inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
south of 13N and west of 73W. The ASCAT pass shows strong NE to E
trades in the south-central Caribbean from 11N-13N between 73W-77W.

Scattered showers and tstms as well as fresh to strong winds are
in the tropical Atlc waters and the Windward Islands as a tropical
wave moves across this region. The wave will cross the Lesser
Antilles tonight and move into the E Caribbean on Wed. Strong high
pressure will prevail N of the Caribbean through Friday and will
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin
increasing to near gale force at night along the coast of
Colombia. The swell in the tropical Atlc waters will subside by
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front passes through 31N64W to 28N72W to
28N78W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the boundary.
To the south, two separate troughs are observed. One trough is
from 22N74W to 26N74W. Convection is very limited with this wave.
The second trough is from 21N70W to 28N68W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 24N-28N between 66W-69W, enhanced by
upper-level divergence. Another surface trough extends from
24N48W to 30N48W. Limited convection is noted along this wave at
this time. To the east, an upper-level low near 30N31W is inducing
scattered showers and tstorms from 27N-31N between 30W-32W.

A frontal boundary will meander over the waters between northeast
Florida and Bermuda through mid week before dissipating. A strong
cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Fri morning,
reach from near Bermuda to south Florida by Fri evening before
moving east of the region Sun evening.

$$
MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net