[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France near the coast of
Morocco, in the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya, from 06/0000 UTC
until 06/1200 UTC. Wave heights of 12-16 ft are also expected in
the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 17W from 12N
southward and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 04N to 12N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35/36W from 12N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 480 nm to the east of the tropical
wave and within 90 west of the tropical wave from 05N-12N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 12N southward,
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 08N-13N between 49W-64W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 08N-18N, moving W
at 10 kt. Isolated showers are over Hispaniola and NW Venezuela,
but little to no shower activity is seen over the waters of the
Caribbean in association with this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 85W extends from the
Gulf of Honduras near 16N southward across Central America and
into the east Pacific. The tropical wave is moving W at 10-15 kt.
Isolated moderate convection is along the wave axis over Central
America. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
farther E in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough from
05N-13.5N between 77W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends from
05N18W to 08N27W to 07N34W, then continues W of a tropical wave
from 05N37W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-08N between 20W-28W, and from 05N-11N between 41W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from Tallahassee Florida to 25N88W to
20N92W to 17N93W. A dissipating stationary front extends from
Daytona Beach to Cedar Key Florida to 29N84W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen over portions of the eastern and southern Gulf
inside the area bounded by the points 31N84W 28N81W 18N94.5W
22N96.5W 31N84W. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level
divergence and upper-level diffluence. The ASCAT pass from late
Tuesday morning showed moderate NE winds to the west of the
surface trough. Elsewhere, isolated moderate showers are seen off
the lower Texas coast.

A weak pressure pattern over the basin will support gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and slight seas until late Thu. A cold
front will move into the far NW Gulf by early Fri, followed by
fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front will shift S
and reach from the Straits of Florida toward Veracruz Mexico by
Sat afternoon. Winds will become strong over the western Gulf
behind the front off the Mexican coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz
Fri through Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers most of the northern Caribbean. However,
a weak upper-level inverted trough that extends from the Windward
Passage to Nicaragua is inducing an isolated tstorm or two over SE
Cuba and over water near 18N-20N between 83W-85W. In the far SW
Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection south of 13.5N and west of
73W. In the southeast corner of the basin, an approaching tropical
wave along 58W is inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection south of 11N and east of 63.5W, including Trinidad and
NE Venezuela. The ASCAT pass from late Tuesday morning shows
strong NE to E trades in the south-central Caribbean from 10N-14N
between 73W-78W.

A tropical wave containing fresh winds and scattered showers and
tstorms will move across the Lesser Antilles tonight and into the
E Caribbean on Wed. Strong high pressure will prevail N of the
Caribbean through Friday and will support fresh to strong winds in
the south-central basin increasing to near gale force at night
along the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N61W to 28N75W to 29N79W,
dissipating stationary to Daytona Beach Florida. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 27N-32N between 75W and Florida,
enhanced by upper-level divergence. A surface trough is along 70W
from 21N-28N. Another surface trough extends from 31N62W to 27N63W
to 20N62W. Isolated showers and tstorms are from 20N-23N between
59W-62W. To the east, an upper-level low near 30N31W is inducing
scattered showers and tstorms from 27N-31N between 26W-34W. The
ASCAT pass from Tuesday morning showed strong trades from 09N-17N
between 33W-53W. Strong NE winds were also seen from 17N-23N
between 18W-25W.

A frontal boundary will meander over the waters between northeast
Florida and Bermuda through mid week before dissipating. A strong
cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Fri morning,
reach from near Bermuda to south Florida by Fri evening before
moving east of the region Sun evening.

$$
Hagen
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