[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 32W S of 15N
is moving W around 20 kt. The wave shows up well in TPW imagery
and model guidance. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 05N-14N between 23W-38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 57W S of 12N
is moving W at 10 kt. This low amplitude wave shows up well in
model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered showers are within
180 nm of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 67W from
09N-21N is moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave has weakened
significantly over the past 2 days. The wave is entering an area
of dry low-mid level air over the Caribbean. There is currently no
significant convection associated with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 81W S of 18N
is moving W around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from
13N-16N between 80W-84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 08N-11N between 77W-80W, where the wave
intersects the east Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 10N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 06N30W, then continues W of a
tropical wave from 05N34W to the coast of French Guiana near
05N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section, scattered moderate to strong convection is along the
coast of west Africa from 05N-12N between 07W-15W. A surface
trough extends from 10N47W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-13N between 43W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05/0300 UTC, a warm front extends from Daytona Beach
Florida near 29N81W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N85W. A
surface trough is also over the E Gulf from 30N87W to 23N88W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. The western
Gulf has mostly fair weather. Scattered moderate convection is
inland over S Mexico from 18N-19N between 91W-93W. ASCAT shows
10-15 kt easterly winds over most of the Gulf.

The warm front will lift northward through Wed. The surface
trough will weaken as it moves westward through late Wed night.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be associated
with this feature. Meanwhile, high pressure over the lower
Mississippi Valley will shift eastward to the Carolinas and
dominate the Gulf waters through Thu night producing mainly an
easterly wind flow. A strong cold front is forecast to move into
the northwest Gulf early on Fri and reach from Sarasota, Florida
to near 24N89W to 23N95W and to the far west-central Gulf by late
Fri night. This cold front will reach from near the Florida Keys
to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and to the SW Gulf by
early on Sat evening. It will be followed by fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas. Northerly winds to near gale
force are possible along and near the coast of Veracruz on Sat and
early on Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Relatively dry low to mid level air covers much of the Caribbean.
An upper-level low is N of the Virgin Islands near 20N61W. This
upper-low and a tropical wave along 67W are enhancing scattered
showers and tstorms N of the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere,
scattered showers and tstorms are over the Yucatan Channel.

Long-period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic
exposures and passages in the eastern Caribbean and the tropical
Atlantic waters east of the basin. Although this swell will
gradually subside through Wed, fresh trades will allow for seas to
build over the Atlantic waters. The trades and seas will also
increase over portions of the south central Caribbean beginning
tonight, as high pressure builds north of the area. These trades
and seas will decrease towards the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic from 31N63W to
27N72W to 28N77W. A warm front continues from 28N77W to Daytona
Beach Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate convection is over
the W Atlantic from 28N-31N between 75W-81W. A surface trough is
over the central Atlantic from 30N63W to 22N64W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 19N-32N between 57W-63W. Another
surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 28N43W to 20N45W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. Of note in the
upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the E
Atlantic near 31N27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-
32N between 25W-31W.

The front in the W Atlantic will become stationary by late
tonight, and begin to lift northward as warm front on Tue while
dissipating. Large long-period northeast swell located to the
northeast of the Bahamas will subside through early on Tue.
A central Atlantic trough will track westward through Thu evening
and reach the Bahamas late Thu night into Fri while it weakens. A
strong cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast and over
the far northwest forecast waters on Fri, and reach from near
31N67W to 28N70W and to Florida Keys and Straits of Florida by
early on Sat evening. It will be followed by increasing winds and
building seas, mainly north and northeast of the Bahamas.

$$
Formosa
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