[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 30/31W S of
13N is moving W around 20 kt. The wave shows up well in TPW
imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 05N-15N between 23W-32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 56W S of 12N
is moving W at 10 kt. This low amplitude wave shows up well in
model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 07N-12N between 51W-58W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 66W from
08N-20N is moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave has weakened
significantly over the past 2 days. The wave is entering an area
of dry low-mid level air over the Caribbean. There is currently
no significant convection associated with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 78/79W S of
17N is moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave
axis from 13N-16N. Isolated moderate convection is south of 10N
where the wave intersects the east Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 06N29W, then continues W
of a tropical wave from 06N32W to 05N52W. Aside from the
convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, isolated
moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 35W-40W. A surface
trough extending from 06N45W to 10N47W is also inducing isolated
moderate convection from 08N-12N between 43W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 04/2100 UTC, a warm front extends from Port Charlotte
Florida to 25N85W. A surface trough is from 30N87W to 28N86W to
24N87W. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the eastern Gulf
between Florida and the surface trough. Similar convection is over
the Yucatan Channel and southern Gulf to the north of the Yucatan
Peninsula, due to leftover moisture from the front that just
dissipated in the area. The western Gulf is quieter, with no
significant showers seen. ASCAT shows moderate wind speeds over
most of the Gulf.

The remnants of the front will move as a trough across the
eastern and central Gulf through Tue night. High pressure over
the lower Mississippi Valley will shift eastward to the Carolinas
and dominate the Gulf waters through Thu producing mainly an
easterly wind flow. The next cold front is forecast to move into
the northwest Gulf early on Fri, reach from Sarasota Florida to
near 24N89W to 23N95W and to the far west-central Gulf by late Fri
night. This cold front will reach from near the Florida Keys to
along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and to the SW Gulf by early
on Sat evening. It will be followed by fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas. Northerly winds to near gale force are
possible along and near the coast of Veracruz on Sat and Sat
evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Relatively dry low to mid level air covers much of the Caribbean.
An upper-level low is near 22N60W. This upper-low and a tropical
wave along 66W are enhancing scattered showers and tstorms across
the northernmost Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
In the NW corner of the basin, leftover moisture from a
dissipating frontal boundary is enhancing scattered showers and
tstorms across the Yucatan Channel and the waters north of 20N and
west of 83W. Scattered showers in the far SW portion of the
Caribbean are due to the combination of a weak upper-level low
near 13N82W, a tropical wave along 79W, and the east Pacific
monsoon trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across
the south-central Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere.

Long-period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic
exposures and passages in the eastern Caribbean. This swell will
gradually subside through Wed. The trades and seas will increase
over portions of the south central Caribbean beginning tonight, as
high pressure builds north of the area. These trades and seas
will decrease towards the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 04/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N64W to 27.5N70W to
27N73W to 28N77W. A warm front continues from 28N77W to Sebastian
Florida near 28N80.5W. Scattered showers and tstorms are over and
east of Florida, from 25N-31N, west of 77W. A small 1017 mb low is
near 26N68W with isolated showers near the low. A surface trough
is along 63/64W from 22N-31N. An upper-level low is near 22N61W.
These features are leading to scattered moderate convection from
18N-25N between 59W-64W and from 27N-32N between 54W-59W.
Scattered showers are seen elsewhere from 18N-32N between 53W-64W.
To the east, a surface trough from 20N43W to 28N41W is inducing
scattered moderate showers from 25N-29N between 39W-43W. An
upper-level low near 32N27W is elongated NNE-SSW. A surface trough
extends east-northeastward from 31N28W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 30N-32N between 25W-30W.

The cold front in the west Atlantic will become stationary by
late tonight, and begin to lift northward as warm front on Tue
while dissipating. Large long-period northeast swell located to
the northeast of the Bahamas will subside through early Tue. The
1017 mb low near 26N68W will weaken tonight and track W as a
trough across the waters east of the Bahamas through Thu night
before it loses its identity. A strong cold front will move off
the southeast U.S. coast and over the far northwest forecast
waters on Fri, and reach from near 31N67W to 28N70W and to the
Florida Keys and Straits of Florida by early Sat evening. It will
be followed by increasing winds and building seas, mainly north
and northeast of the Bahamas. In the far E Atlantic within 120 nm
of the coast of Morocco, N to NE near gales along with wave
heights in excess of 12 ft are expected late Tue through Wed from
29N-32N.

$$
Hagen
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