[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 27W S of
13N, is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
within 200 nm of the wave from 04N-10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 54W S of 13N,
is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within
200 nm of this wave from 07N-11N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 65W S of
20N, is moving W at 10 kt. There is currently no significant
convection associated with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 77W S of 18N,
is moving W at 10-15 kt. Showers are seen along the wave with some
isolated thunderstorms off shore from the Colombia/Panama border
where the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is helping enhance some
of the convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N25W, then continues W
of a tropical wave near 06N27W to 04N42W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ, from 06N-15N between 20W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front continues to linger across the SE Gulf,
passing through SW Florida near 26N82W to the northern Yucatan
near 21N89W. A trough is north of the front from 24N86W to 29N86W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Yucatan Passage
northward into the east-central Gulf from 20N-26N between 83W-89W.
A trough is located in the western Bay of Campeche from 18N94W to
23N97W. Showers and thunderstorms are noted along the south-
central region of the Bay of Campeche. Surface high pressure
extends across the western Gulf. The latest scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds are in the eastern Gulf
with light to gentle winds in the central and western basin.

The stationary front will weaken and dissipate through this
evening. Remnants of the front will move as a trough across the
eastern and central Gulf through Tuesday. High pressure over the
lower Mississippi Valley will shift eastward to the Carolinas and
dominate the Gulf waters through Thursday producing mainly an
easterly wind flow. The next cold front is forecast to reach the
northwest Gulf by Friday followed by fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper level low is off the coast of Nicaragua with isolated
thunderstorms are seen along the coast. Isolated thunderstorms are
also observed in the Gulf of Honduras. The eastern Pacific
monsoon trough is enhancing some isolated convection across
Colombia and Panama, mostly S of 10N between 76W-81W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north of
Colombia with gentle to moderate trades across the rest of the
basin.

Long period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic
exposures and passages in the eastern Caribbean and the tropical
Atlantic waters east of the basin. Although this swell will
gradually subside through mid week, fresh trade winds will allow
seas to build to 8 ft over Atlantic waters. Trade winds and seas
will also increase over portions of the south central Caribbean
starting by tonight, as high pressure builds north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues to sweep eastward across the western and
central Atlantic, entering the forecast area near 31N67W and
stretches westward to 28N75W. The front stalls from 28N75W to the
coast of Florida near 27N80W. Showers are noted along the front. A
1017 mb low, in association with an upper level low, is near
27N66W and a trough extends along the low from 22N66W to 30N65W.
Scattered moderate convection is east of this trough and upper
level low, from 19N-33N between 52W-62W. Another trough is located
in the central Atlantic from 20N41W to 29N39W. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted 100 nm west of the trough from 27N- 29N.
Latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh ENE winds north
of the cold front in the western Atlantic.

The front across the central and western Atlantic will stall and
then shift northward today while dissipating. Large long- period
northeast swell to the northeast of the Bahamas will gradually
subside through late today. A weak 1017 mb low centered along 66W
will track westward as a trough across the waters east of the
Bahamas through mid week. The next cold front is forecast to reach
the waters off northeast Florida by Friday night bringing
increasing winds and building seas.


$$
AKR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net