[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
523 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W S of 15N moving W
around 20 kt. The wave shows up well in TPW imagery and model
guidance. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
06N-15N between 25W-40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W S of 12N moving W
at 10 kt. This low amplitude wave shows up well in model guidance
and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 08N-11N between 52W-57W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 09N-21N
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave has weakened significantly over the
past 2 days. The wave is entering an area of dry low-mid level
air over the Caribbean. There is currently no significant
convection associated with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W S of 18N moving W
around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 12N-17N
between 80W-85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 08N-12N between 75W-81W, where the wave intersects the
east Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 10N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 07N32W, then continues W of a
tropical wave from 07N35W to the coast of French Guiana near
05N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
along the coast of west Africa from 02N-13N between 08W-17W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 44W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A quasi-stationary front extends from Daytona Beach Florida near
29N81W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 29N85W. A surface trough is
also over the E Gulf from 31N87W to 23N90W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 21N-24N between 88W-92W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from 17N-20N
between 92W-94W. ASCAT shows 10-15 kt easterly winds over most of
the Gulf.

A weak low pressure may briefly form along the quasi-stationary
front later today, but the front will gradually dissipate through
mid week. This will leave a weak pressure pattern across the
basin, supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight
seas into late Thu. A cold front will move into the far
northwestern Gulf by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds
and building seas. The front will shift southward and reach from
the Straits of Florida toward Veracruz Mexico by late Sat. Winds
will reach near gale force over the western Gulf behind the front
off the Mexican coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Fri and Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Relatively dry low to mid level air covers much of the Caribbean.
An upper-level low is N of the Virgin Islands near 20N61W. This
upper-low and a tropical wave along 68W/69W are enhancing
scattered showers and tstorms N of the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere,
scattered showers and tstorms are over the Yucatan Channel.

Long-period NE swell continues to subside near Atlantic exposures
and passages in the eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic
waters east of the basin. Meanwhile, fresh trades will allow for
seas to build over the Atlantic waters and over portions of the
south central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area.
These trades and seas will diminish toward the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the eastern Atlantic from 32N62W to
30N68W. A stationary front continues from 30N68W to Daytona Beach
Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the W Atlantic from 29N-33N between 74W-81W. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N61W to
23N65W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 19N-32N
between 58W-65W. Another surface trough is over the E Atlantic
from 28N44W to 22N45W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
trough. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 31N27W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 29N-32N between 25W-31W.

A frontal boundary will meander over the waters between northeast
Florida and Bermuda through mid week before dissipating.
Meanwhile a trough will persist from roughly the southern Bahamas
to Bermuda through in the week. A strong cold front will move off
the southeast U.S. coast late Fri, and reach from Bermuda to south
Florida by late Sat.

$$
Formosa
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