[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis
along 43W from 12N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 40W-49W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 55W from 18N
southward, moving west at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the wave axis.

The Caribbean tropical wave that was analyzed along 71W at 02/1200
UTC has been repositioned to the east based on recent satellite
data. The axis now extends from 20N65W to 09N68W. The wave is
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted well
east of the wave's axis affecting the Lesser Antilles and
adjacent waters from 13N-17N between 58W-62W, but the upper-low to
the north of the area over the Atlantic could be helping to induce
this convection.

A west Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 82/83W from 02N-
18N is moving west at 10-15 kt. An upper-level low prevails near
18N83W, enhancing isolated showers in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 12N between 76W-
83W, enhanced by the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
10N15W to 07N20W to 07N31W. The ITCZ is from 07N31W to 07N41W.
Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate convection is from 02N-12N between 10W-21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Ft. Myers Florida to 22N90W to
18N93W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the front
mainly south of 24N and west of 86W. A surface trough over the SW
Gulf is inducing scattered moderate showers south of 23N across
the Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging continues across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered over
southwest Oklahoma near 35N99W. The ASCAT pass from midday
Saturday shows fresh N winds over the Gulf of Mexico to the north
of the front. Strong N winds prevail within 120 nm N of the front,
west of 87W.

The front will remain nearly stationary and slowly weaken through
Mon. Strong high pressure behind the front will result in fresh
to strong north to northeast winds over much of Gulf through most
of Sun. The high pressure will weaken as it shifts eastward
through Wed night. Remnants of the front will move westward as a
trough across the eastern and central Gulf Mon through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A small upper-level low is located in the W Caribbean near 18N83W.
Isolated showers and tstorms around around the area, mainly along
the S coast of Cuba as well as near the coast of Belize. The East
Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate convection
south of 12N between 77W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is
affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles east of 62W, and this is
associated with tropical waves in the area. Gentle to moderate
trades cover the basin.

Moderate trades will prevail across most of the area through mid-
week. Large long-period northeast swell affecting the Lesser
Antilles and Caribbean passages will gradually subside through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low near 32N74W to just
south of Melbourne Florida near 28N80.5W. Isolated showers are
within 60 nm of the front. To the east, a large upper-level low is
centered near 23N60W. The low is reflected at the surface, with a
surface trough analyzed from 32N57W to 22N61W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N-27N between 52W-
62W. Scattered showers are elsewhere from 17N-32N between 50W-63W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with
fair weather.

Over the W Atlantic, reinforcing high pressure will push the
front slightly southward tonight into Sun. The front will slowly
weaken through Wed as a trough tracks from E to W across the
waters east of the Bahamas. Large long-period northeast swell to
the northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside though Sun
afternoon.

$$
Hagen
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