[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis
along 42W from 00N-12N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well
depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the wave's environment from 05N10N between 38W-50W. This
convection is also related to the ITCZ.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 53W from 18N
southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave was analyzed with axis along
71W from 06N-18N. After carefully revising latest scatterometer
data, model guidance and satellite signature, this wave's axis
will likely be repositioned for the 18 UTC map to 65W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted east of the wave's axis affecting
the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters.

A west Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 81W from 02N-18N
southward, is moving west at 10-15 kt. An upper-level low prevails
across the west Caribbean enhancing scattered showers in the
wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection prevails south
of 12N between 75W-82W, enhanced by the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
00N14W to 07N31W. The ITCZ is from 07N31W to 07N41W. Aside from
the convection described in the Tropical Wave section above,
scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 10W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the southern portion of the
basin from 26N82W to 22N89W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the front mainly west of 88W. Surface
ridging continues to build across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1033 mb high centered over west Oklahoma near
37N101W.

The front will remain nearly stationary and slowly weaken through
Mon. The ridge will weaken as it shifts eastward through Wed
night. Remnants of the front will move westward as a trough across
the eastern and central Gulf Mon through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trades across the
basin. An upper-level low is centered along 80W enhancing
convection across the western half of the basin.

Moderate trades will prevail across most of the area through mid-
week. Large long-period northeast swell affecting the Lesser
Antilles and Caribbean passages will subside through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front passes through 32N74W to 27N80W. To the east,
an upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that
extends from 30N56W to 20N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted with this trough between 50W-61W. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin with fair weather.

Reinforcing high pressure will push the front slightly southward
tonight into Sun. Large long-period northeast swell to the
northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside though Sun
afternoon. The front will slowly weaken through Wed as a trough
tracks from E to W across the waters east of the Bahamas.

$$

ERA
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