[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Nov 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 12N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related
precipitation is about 300 nm to the N of the ITCZ between 40W
and 48W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 13N to 22N between 52W and
61W. It is more likely that this precipitation may be more
related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow that is associated
with the 22N61W cyclonic circulation center. Isolated moderate
to locally strong from 12N southward between 50W and 58W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, moving across
the western parts of Puerto Rico, from 20N southward, moving W 5
knots. The wave is moving through the area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the 22N61W Atlantic Ocean
upper level cyclonic circulation center. Precipitation: isolated
moderate between 60W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 18N
southward, moving W 15 knots. This wave is moving through the
area of an upper level trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 14N northward from 78W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N20W
and 07N30W. The ITCZ continues from 07N30W to 07N54W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 300 nm N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 29W and 48W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong within 300 nm S of the
monsoon trough from 40W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 32N76W to Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico along the NW
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong from 23N southward from the front westward.

A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico.

The current stationary front will remain nearly stationary, and
weaken slowly through Monday. Strong high pressure behind the
front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds in
much of the Gulf of Mexico through most of Sunday. The high
pressure will weaken as it shifts eastward through Wednesday
night. Remnants of the front will move westward as a trough,
across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, from Monday
through Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
extending from Cuba to southern sections of Nicaragua.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N northward from 78W
westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia and
beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong from 12N southward from 76W westward.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the area
through mid-week. Large long period NE swell, affecting the
Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Sea passages, will subside
through Sunday. Strong high pressure NE of the area will bring
increasing wind speeds and building sea heights across the
waters E of the Lesser Antilles from Sunday night through
Thursday night. Expect also fresh to strong winds and building
seas of up to 9 feet or 10 feet across the south-central
Caribbean Sea from Tuesday through Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N76W to Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico along the NW
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to the W of the line that passes through 32N72W to the coast of
Florida near 26N80W. A surface trough is about 240 nm to the SE
of the stationary front. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible
from the Bahamas to 30N between 70W and 76W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N61W, about
360 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N
northward between 50W and 70W. A surface trough passes through
32N59W 28N61W 22N62W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 13N to 27N between 53W and 61W.

Reinforcing high pressure will push the current stationary front
slightly southward, from tonight into Sunday. The front will
dissipate by late Monday. Large long-period northeast swell, to
the northeast of the Bahamas, will subside gradually though
Sunday. A surface trough, currently located E of the area
roughly along 60W, will track westward across the waters east of
the Bahamas through Wednesday.

$$
mt
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