[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains.
Please refer to the local meteorological service for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east tropical Atlantic analyzed along 22W
from 11N-00N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly 70 nm on
either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic,
with axis along 48W-50W and from 12N-01S. The wave is moving at
about 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis
mainly south of 06N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N25W to 00N47W.
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen along the
monsoon trough from 08N-05N between 17W-21W. Scattered showers are
also seen along and north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1022 mb high
pressure centered near 34N71W. Fair weather prevails under this
ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle east-southeast winds in the northern Gulf, with moderate
winds in the Bay of Campeche and the central Gulf. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues
over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W.
Two trough in the basin, one extends south from the FL Panhandle
to 25N84W, and the second trough in the Bay of Campeche near
21N90W to 17N92W. Scattered showers near the vicinity of both
troughs are possible.

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will maintain moderate
to fresh southeast flow over the northwest Gulf through Mon, then
increase slightly to moderate to occasionally strong Mon night
through early Wed as low pressure deepens over the central U.S.
The flow then diminishes to gentle to moderate speeds on Thu.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will occur each night over
the southwestern Gulf as the nocturnal surface trough moves off
the the Yucatan Peninsula to the southwestern Gulf in the
mornings. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy
skies over much of the southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of
Campeche through the early part of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered convection continues across the southern Central
American countries with some of this activity entering the
southern Carribbean. See the section above for more details on
the excessive rainfall threat over Central America.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across
the northwest Carribbean south of Cuba extending into Jamaica and
Hispaniola. Light showers are also in the vicinity of Puerto Rico
and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most
of the basin, with moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and
north of Colombia. Additionally, fresh winds are seen off the
coast of Nicaragua.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week.
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much
of the western Caribbean through the early part of the week. A
tropical wave east of the area near 50W will move across the
Tropical N Atlantic Sun through Mon night and into the eastern
Caribbean Tue through Wed while it loses its identity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves,
currently moving across the central Atlantic.

A cold front is dropping across the central and western Atlantic,
entering the waters near 30N51W and extends west to 25N69W to
31N77W. Showers are occurring along this front. Meanwhile, ahead
of the front a trough extends from 29N50W to 24N64W. Scattered
showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen along and north of
this feature, from 27N-31N between 48W-51W. Otherwise, surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to 27N60W to 26N70W to 31N77W
will continue southward and become nearly stationary near 24N by
early Mon, then dissipate by late Mon night. A high pressure ridge
will build behind the front along roughly 28N Tue through Wed,
then shift slightly northward late Wed through Thu night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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