[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains.
Please refer to the local meteorological service for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the east tropical Atlantic analyzed
along 24W from 01N-10N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment from 04N-
07N between 20W-27W.

A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic,
with axis along 55W and from 01S-12N. The wave is moving at around 15
kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly
south of 04N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 13N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 00N48W. Scattered
showers are noted along the ITCZ mainly west of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1022 mb high
pressure centered near 34N86W. Fair weather prevails under this
ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle southeast winds in the northern Gulf, and moderate winds
in the Bay of Campeche and the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues over
the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W.

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and northeast Gulf will
continue supporting moderate to fresh SE flow over the western
Gulf and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through mid week. A
trough forming over Yucatan each day and moving into the southwest
Gulf will enhance winds reaching fresh to strong categories
during the evening hours. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico
will maintain hazy skies over much of the southwestern Gulf and
eastern Bay of Campeche through the early part of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection continues across the south-central
Caribbean mainly south of 15N between 73W-84W. Lighter activity is
noted north of 15N affecting eastern Cuba, Windward Passage,
Hispaniola, Jamaica and adjacent waters. See the section above
for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central
America.

Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin, with
moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia.
Additionally, fresh winds are noted off the coast of Nicaragua.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week.
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much
of the western Caribbean through the early part of the week. A
tropical wave east of the area near 55W will move west
into the eastern Caribbean Mon, then into the central Caribbean
through mid week as it weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

A cold front is dropping across the west-central Atlantic,
extending from 31N51W to 26N64W to 27N75W, then becoming
stationary to 31N77W. Meanwhile, ahead of the front a surface
trough extends from 29N50W to 22N71W. Scattered showers are
occurring along and east of the cold front, mainly north of
28N. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin.

The cold front west of the northern Bahamas will move south and
stall along 24N Mon before dissipating Mon night. Surface ridge
will build behind the front along roughly 28N through Wed, then
shift slightly northward late Wed through mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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