[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains.
Please refer to the local meteorological service for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east tropical Atlantic analyzed along
22W from 10N-00N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly 70 nm on
either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic,
with axis along 46W-49W and from 12N-00N. The wave is moving at
about 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis
mainly south of 07N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 01S44W. Scattered
showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon
trough from 08N-05N between 17W-21W. Scattered showers are also
seen along and north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1023 mb high
pressure centered near 38N70W. Fair weather prevails under this
ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle east-southeast winds in the northern Gulf, with moderate
winds in the Bay of Campeche and the central Gulf. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues
over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W.
Two trough in the basin, one along the FL Panhandle entering the
waters from 29N82W to 26N83W, and the second trough across the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers near the vicinity of both
troughs are possible.

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will maintain moderate
to fresh southeast flow over the northwest Gulf through Mon, then
increase slightly to moderate to occasionally strong Mon night
through early Wed as low pressure deepens over the central U.S.
The flow then diminishes to gentle to moderate speeds on Thu.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will occur each night over
the southwestern Gulf as the nocturnal surface trough moves off
the the Yucatan Peninsula at night and to across the southwestern
Gulf in the mornings. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will
maintain hazy skies over much of the southwestern Gulf and eastern
Bay of Campeche through the early part of the upcoming week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered convection continues across the southern Central
American countries with some of this activity entering the
southern Carribbean. See the section above for more details on
the excessive rainfall threat over Central America.

Thunderstorms are currently impacting the Greater Antilles,
particularly eastern western Cuba and Hispaniola. Light showers
are also in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle
trades are noted in most of the basin, with moderate winds in the
northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. Additionally, fresh
winds are seen off the coast of Nicaragua.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week.
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much
of the western Caribbean through the early part of the upcoming
week. A tropical wave east of the area near 50W will move across
the Tropical N Atlantic Sun through Mon night and into the eastern
Caribbean Tue through Wed while it loses its identity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves,
currently moving across the central Atlantic.

A cold front is dropping across the central and western Atlantic,
entering the waters near 31N53W and extends west to 27N69 to 31N76W.
Showers are occurring along this front. Meanwhile, a 1015 mb low
is analyzed near 27N56W and a trough extends from this low to
23N64W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen
along and north of this feature, from 27N-31N between 49W-52W.
Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin.

A cold front extending from 27N65W northwestward to 31N75W will
continue southward and become nearly stationary near 24N by early
Mon, then dissipate by late Mon night. A high pressure ridge will
build behind the front along roughly 28N Tue through Wed, then
shift slightly northward late Wed through Thu night.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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