[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Wed May 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 05N20W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01N39W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough east
of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Miami Florida westward to the
central Gulf near 25N90W. An outflow boundary is present along
23N between 85W-90W south of the front. Scattered moderate
convection is in the eastern Gulf near the front and the outflow
boundary, mostly south of 27N and east of 89W. This convection is
also over South Florida and northern Cuba. A 1018 mb high is
centered near the coast of south-central Louisiana, leading to
fair weather in the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered thunderstorms over southern Texas and eastern Mexico are
mostly inland, but could spread a few miles into the Gulf
anywhere between Veracruz and Brownsville through the early
evening hours as they weaken. Smoke continues to be noted on
satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

The nearly stationary front extending from Miami Florida to 25N90W
will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build over the
northern Gulf Thu through Fri, then move E Fri night through the
weekend as SE return flow strengthens over the Gulf. Smoke and
haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities
over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next
several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin
inducing strong subsidence and relatively dry conditions across
the eastern and central Caribbean. The East Pacific monsoon
trough is over the far SW Caribbean and Panama along 09N.
Scattered moderate convection is south of 11N between 70W-87W,
including portions of northwest Venezuela, northern Colombia,
Panama and Costa Rica. Thunderstorms farther north in Central
America are mostly inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
inland over Hispaniola will gradually diminish during the evening.
Thunderstorms over Cuba could potentially continue through the
night due to the influence of the front to the north. ASCAT data
from Wednesday morning depict fresh trades over the central
Caribbean, while moderate trade winds prevail over the western and
eastern Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south central
Caribbean through Thu, then diminish as a high pressure ridge
weakens NE of the region. Winds will be strongest along the coasts
of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over
the Gulf of Honduras region through Sun. Smoke and haze from
ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of
Honduras during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 32N63W to
28N70W to 27N75W, and continues as a stationary front to near
Miami Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate
convection between 60W-70W extends from 90 nm north of the cold
front southward to a line extending from 23N70W to 27N60W. This
convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are over the central and northwest
Bahamas, South Florida and the Florida Straits. Lighter showers
are near and south of the front between 71W-74W. Farther east, an
upper-level low is near 19N50W with scattered showers extending
to the NE and E of the upper-low. Another upper-level low near
26N21W is producing scattered showers over the Canary Islands.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N39W.

The cold front from 32N63W to 27N75W will continue moving E
across the northern waters through Sat while the stationary front
weakens over the Bahamas Thu and Fri. High pressure will build
over the northern waters behind the front Thu night, then
gradually strengthen Fri through Mon. In the far eastern Atlantic,
near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir, NE winds of
near gale force are expected on Friday, according to the Meteo
France forecast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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