[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 PM EDT Wed May 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W
to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is along and
south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from the coast of
Florida near 27N83W to 25N89W. Scattered moderate convection has
fired off along this boundary and is moving south into the
southeastern Gulf from 27N-24N between 83W-91W. A pair of surface
troughs are analyzed over the western Gulf. The first extends
from 22N96W to 28N95W, while the second trough along the Yucatan
from 19N93W to 23N89W. Smoke continues to be noted on satellite
imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

The stationary front will weaken through tonight. High pressure
will build over the northern Gulf Thursday through Friday, then
move E Friday night through the weekend as SE return flow
strengthens over the Gulf. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires
in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the
Bay of Campeche over the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin
inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scattered
moderate convection is moving off the northern coast of Colombia
and Panama entering the basin. The Colombian low has moved over
the Caribbean waters near 10N76W with a central pressure of 1010
mb. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades over the
central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trade winds prevail
over the western and eastern Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central
Caribbean through Thursday, then diminish as a high pressure
ridge weakens NE of the region. Winds will be strongest along the
coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
over the Gulf of Honduras region through Sunday. Smoke and haze
from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities
north of Honduras over the next several days.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N66W to
the Florida coast near 27N80W. Scattered showers prevail over the
western and central Atlantic within 100 nm of the front. Moderate
to strong convection is noted from 27N-24N between 70W-72W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a
1027 mb high centered near 32N39W.

The cold front will continue moving SE across the northern waters
through tonight, then stall and weaken over the central waters
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build over the northern
waters behind the front Thursday night and gradually strengthen
Friday through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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