[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EDT Wed May 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along and
south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from 27N83W to 26N89W.
A surface trough extends along 25N between 79W-83W. Scattered
showers are noted across the eastern half of the basin mainly east
of 90W. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed over the western
Gulf. The first extends from 23N89W to 17N91W, while the second
trough is from 27N97W to 23N95W. Smoke is still noted on satellite
imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

The stationary front will weaken tonight. High pressure will then
build over the northern Gulf Thu through Fri, then move east Fri
night through Sun to support increasing southeast return flow.
Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce
visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin
inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong trades over the central and western
Caribbean, while moderate trade winds prevail over the eastern
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south
central Caribbean through Thu, then diminish as a high pressure
ridge lifts northeast and moves away from the region. Strongest
winds will prevail along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras
region through the weekend. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in
Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras over
the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N68W to
the Florida coast near 28N80W. Scattered showers prevail over the
west Atlantic in the vicinity of the front mainly west of 70W. The
strongest activity is noted over the Bahamas. To the east, a line
of moderate convection prevails north of 25N between 58W-65W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 31N39W.

The cold will continue moving southeast across the northern
waters through tonight, then stall and weaken over the central
waters Thu into Fri. High pressure will build over the northern
waters behind the front Thu night and gradually strengthen Fri
through Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net