[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 02S43W. No significant convection is noted near these
boundaries at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across the southeast Gulf from
25N80W to 25N85W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder
of the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 29N87W.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds
across the basin. Smoke continues to be noted on satellite
imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

The front will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build over
the northern Gulf Thu through Fri, then move E Fri night through
the weekend as SE return flow strengthens over the Gulf. Smoke and
haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico could reduce visibilities
over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next
several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin
inducing strong subsidence and relatively dry conditions across
the eastern and central Caribbean. Convection over Cuba could
potentially continue through the night due to the influence of the
front to the north. The East Pacific monsoon trough is over the
far SW Caribbean and Panama along 09N enhancing shower activity in
this area. ASCAT data depicts fresh trades over the central
Caribbean, while moderate trade winds prevail over the western and
eastern Caribbean.

Fresh winds will persist across the south central Caribbean
through Thu, then diminish as a high pressure ridge weakens
northeast of the region. Winds will be strongest along the coasts
of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over
the Gulf of Honduras region through Sun. Smoke and haze from
ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of
Honduras during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N63W to
27N70W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
and south of the front between 74W-80W. A surface trough is
analyzed from 30N61W to 23N68W. Scattered showers prevail between
the trough and front mainly north of 25N between 59W-66W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a
1030 mb high centered near 33N38W.

The cold front will continue moving east across the northern
waters through Sat while weakening. High pressure will build
over the northern waters behind the front by Thu night, then
gradually strengthen Fri through Mon. In the far eastern Atlantic,
near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir, NE winds of
near gale force are expected on Friday, according to the Meteo
France forecast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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