[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1719 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern Guinea coast near
09N13W to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast
of Brazil near 02S45W. A surface trough extends from 05N45W to
01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the
monsoon trough mainly east of 28W. There is also some showers
developing along the northern portion of the surface trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from north-central Florida to the central
Gulf, from 29N83W to 27N86W. From there, it becomes stationary to
25N94W. Thunderstorms are seen on satellite and radar across the
Gulf stretching from northeast Mexico to south of Tampa Bay along
the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trough is seen in
central Florida into the eastern Gulf near 27N82W to 26N83W. A
1008 mb low is seen along the Mexican coastline near 19N97W with a
trough extending north from the low to 24N91W. Smoke is noted on
satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

A slow-moving cold front extending from central Florida to the
central Gulf of Mexico will stall and weaken over the Gulf today
through Wednesday night. High pressure will build over the
northern Gulf Thursday through Friday, then move east on Friday
night through Sunday resulting in strengthening SE return flow.
Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce
visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the
next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin
inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades over the central and western
Caribbean, with light trade winds in the southwest Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean. A
trough extends from the Colombian low into the basin from 11N74W
to 16N71W. Another surface trough is seen in over the western
Haitian coastline extending into part of the Atlantic from 21N72W
to 18N75W.

Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central
Caribbean through Wednesday night, then diminish slightly as a
high pressure ridge lifts NE and moves away from the region. Fresh
winds will persist along the N Colombia coast through Sunday.
Fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras region through
Sunday. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will
reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days.
Northerly swell propagating over the tropical N Atlantic waters
will subside by Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N76W to
the Florida coast near 29N81W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen
along the cold front north of 30N and west of 73W. Upper level
diffluence is also enhancing scattered moderate convection from
31N-27N between 65W-70W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near
23N39W.

A cold front will move across the northern waters
today through Wednesday, then stall and weaken over the central
waters Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will build
over the northern waters behind the front Thursday night and
gradually strengthen Friday through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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