[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern Guinea coast near
08N13W to 01N33W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44W. A surface trough extends from 05N46W to
00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along
and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from north-central FL to the western
Gulf, from 28N82W to 26N90W to 24N96W. Strong thunderstorms are
seen on satellite and radar stretching south into the western
and central Gulf north of 24N-26N between 90W-92W. Scattered
shower activity is also noted along the stationary front
extending east to the eastern Gulf. A 1008 mb low is seen along
the Mexican coastline near 19N95W with a trough extending north
from the low to 23N90W. Smoke is noted on satellite imagery over
the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms over Cuba have moved into the northwest coastal
waters from 22N-23N between 82W-84W.

A stationary front extending from N of Tampa Florida to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W to SE of Brownsville Texas near
24N96W will weaken over the Gulf tonight through Wed night. High
pressure will build over the northern Gulf Thu through Fri, then
move E Fri night through Sun to support increasing SE return flow.
Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce
visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin
inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong trades over the central and western
Caribbean, with moderate trade winds in the eastern Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean. A
trough extends from the Colombian 1010 mb low into the basin from
10N72W to 16N70W.

Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south central
Caribbean through Wed night, then diminish as a high pressure
ridge lifts NE and moves away from the region. Winds will be
strongest along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras region through
Sun. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will
reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days.
Northerly swell propagating over the tropical N Atlantic waters
will subside by Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N71W to
the Florida coast near 28N80W. scattered thunderstorms are seen
along the cold front north of 28N and west of 78W. Upper level
diffluence is also enhancing scattered moderate convection along
the eastern FL coast. A pre-frontal trough is seen ahead of the
front from 29N73W to 27N77W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection from 26N78W to 27N79W. Isolated strong convection is
noted in central Bahamas enhanced by the upper level diffluence
over the region. Further east, surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered
near 29N38W.

A cold front will move across the northern waters tonight and
Wed, then stall and weaken over the central waters Wed night
and Thu. High pressure will build over the northern waters
behind the front Thu night and gradually strengthen Fri through
Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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