[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 AM EDT Tue May 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to
03N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. A surface
trough extends from 06N44W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east
of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northern Florida to the Big Bend then
becomes stationary from 29N83W to 25N91W. Scattered showers
prevail along the front. A surface trough is analyzed over the
Bay of Campeche from 23N90W to 19N91W. Smoke is noted on
satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

The front will stall and weaken over the Gulf today through Wed
night. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf Thu through
Fri, then move E Fri night through Sat night resulting in
strengthening SE return flow. Smoke and haze from ongoing
wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities in the western Gulf
and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level broad ridge prevails across most of the basin
inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades over Caribbean, with
fresh to strong winds within 200 nm north of the
Colombia/Venezuela coastline. To the east, a surface trough
extends along 72W from 13N-17N with no significant convection at
this time. Scattered moderate convection is over the S Caribbean
mainly south of 10N due to the proximity of the EPAC's monsoon
trough. Satellite imagery shows smoke over the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south
central Caribbean through Wed night, then diminish slightly as
a high pressure ridge lifts northeast and moves away from the
region. Fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras region
through the week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central
America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level diffluence across Florida and west Atlantic is
enhancing scattered moderate convection mainly west of 69W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N39W.

A cold front will move across the northern waters
today through Wed, then stall and weaken over the central waters
Wed night into Thu. High pressure will build over the northern
waters behind the front Thu night and gradually strengthen Fri
through Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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