[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT May 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N14W, and 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from
05N19W, to 03N30W, to 04N37W, to 02N45W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 07N between 36W and
41W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 06N southward between 05W and 26W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 06N southward between 42W and 51W.

A surface trough is along 31W/32W from 08N southward. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 07N between 29W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the westernmost sections of
the Florida Panhandle, into a small part of Alabama,
Mississippi, and SE corner of Louisiana, to the west central and
SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico, near 23N95W. A surface trough
continues from 23N95W to the northern coast of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 26N northward from 90W eastward.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are to the west of 90W, and from 26N southward from 84W
eastward leading into the Straits of Florida.

The current frontal boundary will move slowly across the
northern Gulf of Mexico from today through Tuesday. The front
will stall and weaken in the central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday
and Thursday. Weak high pressure will build near the central
Gulf coast on Thursday, and it will persist through Friday.
Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may be reducing the
visibilities in the western and SW Gulf of Mexico during the
next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes across Hispaniola to the border of
Costa Rica and Panama. Isolated moderate to locally strong are
from 14N southward from 77W westward in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Lingering rainshowers are possible across
Hispaniola and its surrounding coastal waters. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the
area that is from 78W eastward.

An upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, northwestward to
northern Colombia, and to central Panama. The upper level SW
wind flow that is moving across the Caribbean Sea is related to
a combination of the wind flow that is to the east of the upper
level trough, and the anticyclonic wind flow that is with the
upper level ridge.

A surface trough is along 66W/67W from 15N southward.
Rainshowers are possible from 17N southward between 60W and 70W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 12/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.10 in
Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.07 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.04 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.02 in Kingston in Jamaica and in
Trinidad, and 0.01 in Curacao.

Fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras this week. The
wind speeds are expected to pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf
of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea will persist through Wednesday, and then become
fresh through the end of the week. Smoke and haze from ongoing
fires in Central America will be reduce the visibilities north
of Honduras during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N63W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 29N to 34N between
53W and 63W, and within 90 nm on either side of the line that
runs from 21N43W to 25N52W to 29N60W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the area from 22N northward between 60W and
66W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal waters of
Florida and near the NW Bahamas, from 23N northward from 72W
westward.

A cold front passes through 32N23W to 30N24W. The cold front is
dissipating from 30N24W to 23N30W to 19N39W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that
is from 17N northward between 22W and 60W.

A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 28N50W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold
front northwestward. A surface ridge extends from the 28N50W
high pressure center to 27N63W to 25N72W, across the Bahamas,
to 22N87W in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

The current ridge will shift southward today, ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front will move across the
northern waters from tonight through Wednesday night, and then
stall and weaken in the central waters on Thursday. Weak high
pressure will build off the SE U.S. coast on Thursday, and
track eastward along 31N through Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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