[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N20W to 04N26W. The ITCZ continues from
04N26W to 04N35W. A surface trough is along 37W from 01N-08N. The
ITCZ resumes near 04N38W and extends to the coast of Brazil near
01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 01N-
05N between 06W-18W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the
surface trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the
north central Gulf of Mexico near 25N92W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 27N, E of the front to 80W, to include N
Florida. Lightning detection is showing thunderstorms over S
Florida due to inland airmass instability. A surface trough is
over the Bay of Campeche from 22N94W to 18N95W, depicted by a
wind shift. Broken to overcast low clouds are over the W Gulf W
of 95W. Dense smoke is noted on satellite imagery over the W Gulf
W of 90W. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the
NE Gulf and N Florida enhancing convection.

A cold front will slowly move across the northern Gulf through
Tue, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Wed and Thu.
Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico will reduce
visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. A 1010 mb low is centered
over N Colombia near 09N76W. Further E, a surface trough is over
south central Caribbean Sea and N Venezuela along 69W from 09N-
14N, depicted by a wind shift. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 10N, Panama, and NW
Colombia. Dense smoke is over the Gulf of Honduras. In the upper
levels, strong subsidence is over the central and western
Caribbean. Upper level moisture is noted over the Windward and
Leeward Islands.

Fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean will
persist through Wed. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central
America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras during the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic off the N
Florida coast N of 28N and W of 79W. More isolated moderate
convection is over the W Atlantic N of 28N W of 72W. A 1025 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N44W. Of note in
the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the W Atlantic
enhancing convection. Elsewhere, an upper level low is over the E
Atlantic near 31N24W. Scattered showers are possible over the
Canary Islands.

Expect a cold front to enter the W Atlantic tonight through Wed
night, then weaken and stall in the central Atlantic on Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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