[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT May 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 06N15W, and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W, to 03N30W, to the Equator along 50W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 26W
eastward, and from 02N to 06N between 34W and 50W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the SW corner of Louisiana, to
the west central and SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico, near
22N97W.  Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 26N northward from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida, from 25N southward
from 84W eastward.

A cold front will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico
through Monday. The front will stall and dissipate in the
central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in
Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW
Gulf of Mexico during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes across Hispaniola to the border of
Costa Rica and Panama. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
Haiti and its surrounding coastal waters, and from 12N southward
between 76W and 82W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the area that is from 75W eastward.

An upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, northwestward to
northern Colombia, and to central Panama. The upper level SW
wind flow that is moving across the Caribbean Sea is related to
a combination of the wind flow that is to the east of the upper
level trough, and the anticyclonic wind flow that is with the
upper level ridge.

A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 14N southward, in the
easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible
from 17N southward between 62W and 70W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 12/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.10 in
Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.07 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.04 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.02 in Kingston in Jamaica and in
Trinidad, and 0.01 in Curacao.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Tuesday. Fresh to strong winds will develop on
Monday in the south central Caribbean Sea, before diminishing in
this area on Thursday. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in
Central America may be reducing the visibilities north of
Honduras during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N65W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 28N to 33N between
56W and 63W, and within 90 nm on either side of the line that
runs from 21N46W to 24N51W to 26N55W, and to 28N60W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area from 22N to 30N between 60W
and 66W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal waters of
Florida and near the NW Bahamas, to the west of the line
that runs from 32N73W to 25N78W.

A cold front passes through 32N24W to 24N30W to 20N37W. The
front is dissipating from 20N37W to 19N43W and 20N47W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the
area that is from 17N northward between 22W and 60W.

A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 28N49W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold
front northwestward. A surface ridge extends from the 28N49W
high pressure center to 28N63W to 26N72W to 24N85W in the SE
Gulf of Mexico.

The current ridge that is along 28N will shift southward through
Tuesday, before retreating eastward. A cold front will move
across the northern waters from Monday night through Wednesday
night, with high pressure building in its wake.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net