[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W to 06.5N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W
to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 04N-08N between the west
coast of Africa and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm of the coast of South America from 03S-04N. A surface
trough along 51W from the Equator to 07N is enhancing convection
over NE Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes from near New Orleans Louisiana to the west-
central Gulf near 26N94W. It continues as a stationary front from
26N94W to 21N97W and inland into Mexico to 26N100W. A squall line
with scattered to numerous moderate convection is located over the
NE Gulf and eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle. The
convective line at 2320 UTC was from 28N89W to 27N86W to 29N84W.
Scattered showers and storms line portions of the eastern Florida
Peninsula, enhanced by upper-level diffluence in the area. The
weather is mostly quiet for the remainder of the Gulf, although
satellite imagery continues to show smoke and haze over portions
of the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf of Mexico due to agricultural
fires over Mexico. Visibility readings as low as 3 to 5 miles have
recently been reported.

The front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will drift slowly
eastward through Mon, then stall and dissipate over the central
Gulf on Tue. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.
Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may reduce
visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the
next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms cover portions of Cuba,
Hispaniola and western Jamaica due to the afternoon heating over
land. This is also the case over much of Central America. An upper
level trough passes across the SE Bahamas to Haiti to Costa Rica.
An area of broken to overcast multilayered clouds is present
across the eastern Caribbean. A surface trough is analyzed along
63/64W from 08N-14N. Isolated showers are south of 17N between
65W-74W. In the latest satellite imagery, smoke and haze are noted
over the Gulf of Honduras west of 86W and south of 18.5N.
Moderate to fresh winds cover most of the Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will develop on Monday
across the south central Caribbean. Winds will diminish over this
area on Thu. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in
Central America may reduce visibilities north of Honduras during
the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered thunderstorms enhanced by upper-level diffluence are
from 25N-32N between 79W and the coasts of Florida and Georgia.
Some of these storms are producing frequent lightning and wind
gusts to 30 kt or higher. Expect the thunderstorms to weaken
slightly by Monday as this activity migrates eastward over the
northwest waters during the next 24 hours. A 1022 mb high centered
near 29N55W extends a ridge that covers most of the subtropical
Atlantic from 35W-75W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front
extends from 32N24W to 24N32W to 20N42W to 20N47W. A surface
trough is just ahead of the front from 29N24W to 20N35W. Isolated
to scattered showers are possible near the trough and front, east
of 35W.

A high pressure ridge along 28N will shift southward through Tue
before retreating eastward. A cold front will move across the
northern waters Mon night through Wed night, with high pressure
building in its wake.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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