[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N34W,
to the Equator 00N37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection extend from 04N-08N between 12W-19W. Further east,
additional scattered shower activity is seen along the ITCZ
boundary to 30W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along
the ITCZ near the coast of Brazil the Equator to 03N and west of
43W. A surface trough is also present from 08N-00N along 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the South Central Louisiana, to
a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 27N93W, to the coast
of Mexico near 21N97W, and then curving northwestward to the
interior part of northern Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are in the coastal waters from the FL Panhandle to
South Central Louisiana extending out 100 nm from the coast. A
surface trough is noted ahead of the front from 30N88W to 28N91W.
Further south, another trough is present from 23N95W to 19N96W
with no significant convection observed along the trough axis.
Satellite imagery continue to show broad area of smoke and haze
spread across portion of the Gulf from 90W to the Texas and Mexico
coastal waters.

A stationary front across the western Gulf will weaken through
Mon. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Mon, then
stall over the central Gulf on Tue. A ridge will persist across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and then retreat
eastward through the middle of the week. Smoke and haze from
ongoing fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the
western and SW Gulf of Mexico during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes across Cuba to central Nicaragua
and Costa Rica. An area of broken to overcast multilayered clouds
are present across the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers extend
from the Lesser Antilles to 77W. In the latest satellite imagery,
smoke and haze are spread across the Gulf of Honduras moving into
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, the latest ASCAT
data shows moderate to fresh southeast winds across the Gulf of
Honduras.

A surface trough extends from southeast Bahamas across the Windward
Passage to 17N74W. A second trough is seen near the Lesser Antilles
from 13N61W to 10N62W. Scattered showers are possible in the
vicinity of both troughs.

Fresh to strong winds will develop early next week across the
south central Caribbean. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural
fires in Central America may reduce visibilities north of Honduras
during the next several days.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high pressure is center near 29N57W. The ridge remains
in control across much of the Atlantic Ocean and extend south to
12N and west to the Bahamas. To the east, a cold front passes
through 31N26W to 19N46W. Scattered showers are possible 60 to 70
nm ahead of the front. A surface trough is 70 nm ahead of the
front from 29N25W to 20N36W. The ridge along 31N will shift
southward through Mon then retreat eastward through Thu. A cold
front will move across the northern waters Mon night through Wed
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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