[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun May 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 05N15W, and 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from
04N22W, to 03N32W, to the Equator along 35W, to 01S36W, and to
just to the south of the Equator along 42W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 09N between 10W
and 29W, and from 03N southward between 40W and 50W.

One surface trough is along 48W/49W from 09N southward. Any
nearby precipitation is probably more related to the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the SW corner of Louisiana, to
a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 27N94W, to the coast
of Mexico near 22N98W, and then curving northwestward to 26N101W
in the interior part of northern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the U.S.A.
coastal waters and coastal plains from SE Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 92W
westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 26N southward
from 86W eastward, in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico from
today through Monday, and then it will stall in the central Gulf
of Mexico on Tuesday. A ridge will persist across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and then retreat eastward through
the middle of the week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in
Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW
Gulf of Mexico during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes across Cuba to central Nicaragua.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are to the east of the line that runs from SE Cuba
to Jamaica to the east central coastal areas of Nicaragua.

An upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, northwestward to
northern Colombia. The upper level SW wind flow that is moving
across the Caribbean Sea is related to a combination of the wind
flow that is to the east of the upper level trough, and the
anticyclonic wind flow that is with the upper level ridge.

A surface trough is along 61W/62W from 14N southward, in the
easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible
from 16N southward between 60W and 64W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 11/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.52 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Trinidad.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Tuesday, and then diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds from Wednesday through Thursday. Fresh to strong winds
will prevail through early next week across the south central
Caribbean Sea, between the Colombian heat low and building high
pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean. Smoke from ongoing
agricultural fires in Central America may create hazy skies and
reduced visibilities north of Honduras during the next several
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 180 nm to the
north and NE of the line that runs from 22N50W to 26N60W, and
then within 360 nm to the north and NE of the line that runs
from 26N60W to 27N65W to 29N73W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are developing just to the east of
Florida, from 27N northward from 77W westward.

A cold front passes through 32N26W to 27N30W to 21N40W to
20N44W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N northward between
23W and 70W.

A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N58W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold
front northwestward.

A ridge along 31N will shift southward through Monday before
retreating eastward through mid week. NE swell in the far SE
part of the area will produce sea heights to 8 feet from today
through Monday. A cold front will move across the northern
waters from Monday night through Wednesday, and then it will
pass E of the area on Wednesday night and Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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