[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1754 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to
01N36W, and continues to the coast of Brazil near 01N49W. Scattered
moderate convection are within 80 nm on either side of the ITCZ.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the
coast of Brazil and near the ITCZ from 02N southward and west of
48W. A cluster of moderate convection is also seen further south
from 01S-04S between 34W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the SW corner of Louisiana, to
a 1010 mb low pressure near the coastal waters of the Texas Gulf
coast, to 23N97W in Mexico, and then the front curves northwestward
into Mexico. A surface trough is about 100 nm to the ESE of the
frontal boundary from 29N92W to 25N95W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary 100 nm to
the southeast. High pressure over the Atlantic keeps a southeast
flow across the eastern portion of the Gulf with moderate to fresh
winds. Isolated showers to are along the Florida Peninsula and
near coastal waters. A weak trough is in the Bay of Campeche from
22N94W to 18N93W with no significant convection associated with
the trough axis. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico is
noticeable spread across the western Gulf west of 90W. Reduction
of visibility is possible west of 90W to the Bay of Campeche and
the coast of Mexico.

A nearly stationary front will linger over the western Gulf of
Mexico through tonight, then move across the northern Gulf as a
cold front Sun through Mon. A ridge will extend across the eastern
Gulf into early next week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in
Mexico may reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of
Campeche the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the NW Caribbean to Nicaragua.
This is enhancing an area of scattered moderate convection across
southern and central portion of the Caribbean south of the Windward
Passage to the southern Caribbean. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds with scattered moderate convection are being observed from
the coast of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. A surface
trough is present from 14N59W to 06N60W. Moderate to fresh easterly
trades are noted across the basin.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Wed. Fresh easterly winds will persist across the
south central Caribbean through the weekend, then strengthen early
next week. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central
America may create hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of
Honduras the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N32W to 23N50W to 30N70W. A trough
extends from 22N-51W to 25N70W around 100 nm south of the front.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N-26N between 66W-
68W. Scattered showers can not be ruled out along the front.

A 1024 mb high pressure is center near 33N62W. An anticyclonic
wind flow covers much of the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front
northwestward. An area of scattered shower activity is observed
from 20N-25N between 26W-36W.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will move eastward and
strengthen into early next week. NE swell will move into the far
SE part of the area on Sunday and Sunday night, with seas building
to 10 feet. Fresh SW winds will develop east of northern Florida
Sun night ahead of a cold front which will cross the northern
waters Mon through Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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