[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to
04N26W, to the Equator along 31W, in the area that is from the
01S to the Equator between 31W and 41W, to 01S39W, crossing the
Equator again along 44W, to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 90 nm on
either side of the line that is from 06N11W to 05N20W to 04N26W
to 02N31W, and from 02N southward between 39W and the coast of
Brazil near 50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 04N southward from 44W westward, and from 08W eastward.

One surface trough is along 42W/43W from 07N southward. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 12N southward between 39W and 45W. A second surface trough
is along 59W/60W from 14N southward. Rainshowers are possible
within 90 nm on either side of the trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the SW corner of Louisiana, to
the coastal waters of the Texas Gulf coast, to 23N99W in Mexico,
and then the front curves northwestward to 28N104W in Mexico.
A surface trough is about 100 nm to the ESE of the frontal
boundary from 26N northward. Scattered strong rainshowers are in
the coastal waters of the SE U.S.A. from the Florida Panhandle
to SE Louisiana. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are along the coast of NE Mexico near 26N95W, and off the coast
of SW Florida near 25N82W.

A nearly stationary front will linger in the western Gulf of
Mexico through tonight. The front will move across the northern
Gulf as a cold front from Sunday through Monday. A ridge will
extend across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend and
into early next week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in
Mexico may reduce the visibilities in the western and SW Gulf of
Mexico during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Channel to
Nicaragua. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong rainshowers are from 14N southward from 74W westward.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
precipitation are being stretched toward the northeast by the
upper level wind flow. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in Colombia from 04N northward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America. Warming cloud
top temperatures and possibly lingering rainshowers cover the
inland areas from the eastern parts of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to Honduras and Nicaragua.

An upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, northwestward to
the NW corner of Venezuela. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea from 68W eastward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 11/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.54 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Wednesday. Fresh easterly winds will persist
across the south central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
wind speeds will increase early next week, as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to building high pressure in the
central Atlantic Ocean. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in
Central America may create hazy skies and reduced visibilities
north of Honduras for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N34W to 28N40W to 25N50W to 26N60W
to 31N71W. A dissipating cold front is within 60 nm to 120 nm to
the ESE and S of the cold front. A shear line continues from
24N60W to 25N70W and 25N76W near the Bahamas. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 20N northward, in general, from 30W
westward, with the fronts. Other isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere from 16N northward between 25W and 70W.

A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 35N63W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the
cold front northwestward.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will move ESE and
strengthen through the weekend and into early next week. NE
swell will move into the far SE part of the area on Sunday and
Sunday night, with seas building to 8 feet. Fresh SW winds will
develop in the far northern waters on Sunday night and Monday,
ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is expected
to cross the northern waters from Monday night through Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net