[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
733 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 12N16W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to the coast of Brazil
near 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 80
nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low is centered over southern Texas with a stationary
front extending from it to 22N98W. A surface trough is analyzed
east of this front from 30N94W to 19N95W. No significant
convection is related to any of these features at this time.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southeasterly winds
across the basin. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico is
noticeable spread across the western Gulf west of 90W. Reduction
of visibility is possible west of 90W to the Bay of Campeche and
the coast of Mexico.

The stationary front will linger over the western Gulf
of Mexico through tonight. The front will then move across the
northern Gulf as a cold front Sun through Mon. A ridge will extend
across the eastern Gulf into early next week. Smoke and haze from
ongoing fires in Mexico may reduce visibilities in the western
Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from the NW Caribbean to Nicaragua.
Diffluent flow east of the trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection across the central Caribbean between 70W-80W. An area
of moderate convection is noted over Costa Rica, Panama and
northern Colombia enhanced by the seasonal surface trough that
extends along 08N. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the
basin.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each
night through mid-week. Fresh easterly winds will persist across
the south central Caribbean through the weekend, then strengthen
early next week. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central
America may create hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of
Honduras over the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N30W to 23N41W to 23N51W, then becomes
weak through 29N69W. A surface trough extends from 22N48W to
26N68W. Scattered showers are noted along these features. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

High pressure ridge along 31N will shift southward
through Tue before retreating eastward. A cold front will move
across the northern waters Mon through Wed, then shift E of the
area Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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