[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1719 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ begins at 18N13W to 00N45W
to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 06N-03N between
13W-21W. There is also an area of scattered moderate convection
from 05N-03S and west of 36W to the coast of Brazil.

There is a surface trough seen north of the ITCZ near 06N38W to
02N38W. Some scattered showers are seen along this surface trough.
Another surface trough is north of Suriname near 11N54W to 06N55W.
Light showers are seen with this feature.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Multiple thunderstorm complexes are moving across the Gulf. A
squall line is moving across coastal Louisiana near 30N92W to near
28N93W. Another squall line is seen closer to the Texas coast
near 28N95W to 27N97W. An outflow boundary is also seen near
28N95W to 27N96W. A trough not currently associated with
significant weather is seen across the Florida Panhandle to
eastern Louisiana, near 31N83W to 30N91W. Scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms are seen east of Louisiana. Farther south
in the Bay of Campeche, a 1004 mb low is along the Mexican coast
near 20N96W. A trough extends north of the low to 24N94W. Smoke is
seen via satellite imagery across the Bay of Campeche. Winds are
generally gentle to moderate out of the south-southeast across the
eastern and central basin. Winds closer to the convective
activity can expect gusts near gale force. For now, the frontal
boundary remains inland in south/southeast Texas.

Strong thunderstorms associated with a squall line ahead of the
front in Texas are expected to continue through tonight. A
thermal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of
fresh to strong winds over the south central Gulf at night. Smoke
and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may reduce visibilities in
the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the next several
days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge is seen across the Caribbean, with weak
surface ridging in the basin. Scattered moderate convection
continues across Panama and is moving into the southwest
Caribbean. The Colombian low is displaced from its usual spot and
is in the Caribbean with a central pressure of 1010 mb near
09N77W. A surface trough extends from the low to near 13N73W.
Otherwise, trade winds are gentle to moderate across most of the
Caribbean with fresh to strong winds north of Honduras. Smoke is
also seen on satellite across the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each
night. Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south central
Caribbean through the weekend. Smoke from ongoing agricultural
fires in Central America may create hazy skies and reduced
visibilities north of Honduras for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N47W and extends
to the west near 30N63W. Light showers are within 50 nm of this
front. There is also a leading cold front near 31N43W to near
26N68W. A pre-frontal trough is also seen near 28N48W to 23N56W.
Showers are within 70 nm of this front. Elsewhere, isolated
thunderstorms are moving across the Straits of Florida and across
the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high near 28N29W is ridging across most of
the central Atlantic.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will slide ESE through
the weekend. A cold front is expected to cross the far northern
forecast waters Monday night through Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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