[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101102
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
605 AM EDT Fri May 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W to 06N19W and 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W
to 01N28W 03N31W 01N36W, to the Equator along 46W. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 05N southward between
34W and 44W, and from 02N southward between 44W and Brazil.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 01N to 07N between 04W and 24W.

One surface trough is along 31W/32W from 08N southward. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 06N southward between 30W and 35W.
A second surface trough is along 50W/51W from 12N southward.
Rainshowers are possible from 12N southward between 48W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the eastern sections of Texas, to
south central Texas, into northern sections of Mexico, passing
just to the south of the Texas Big Bend, and curving
northwestward, toward west Texas. Scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers cover the areas from the coastal plains and the
coastal waters of Louisiana and Texas, and parts of NE Mexico.

The current cold front will stall near the Texas coast, from
later today through Sunday night. Rainshowers and thunder will
accompany the front. Some thunderstorms tonight may be strong to
severe in intensity, and it is possible that they may produce
strong gusty winds. A thermal trough will develop daily in the
Yucatan Peninsula then move W over the Gulf of Mexico. The
trough will support pulses of strong winds in the south central
Gulf at night and into the morning through Saturday morning.
The winds will pulse to fresh speeds from Sunday through Tuesday
night. A ridge will cross the Gulf of Mexico from NE to SW
through Monday night. Smoke and haze, from ongoing fires in
Mexico, may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW
Gulf of Mexico during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The base of an upper level trough is near the border of Costa
Rica and Panama. An east-to-west oriented surface trough is
along 09N/10N from Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains and
coastal waters of Colombia and Panama, from 12N southward from
80W eastward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 14N
southward from 77W westward.

An upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, northwestward
across the rest of Venezuela and the northern sections of
Colombia, to 10N80W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward.

Strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night
through Tuesday night. The wind speeds will be the highest
tonight and generate seas to 8 feet. Fresh easterly winds will
continue across the south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday,
before becoming fresh to strong on Monday. Smoke, from ongoing
agricultural fires in Central America, may maintain hazy skies
and reduced visibilities to the north of Honduras through much
of the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N31W, to 29N46W, to
29N51W. A stationary front continues from 29N51W, to 26N63W.
A shear line continues from 26N63W to 26N73W, to 25N76W near the
Bahamas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the north and northwest of the line
that passes through 32N40W to 23N56W, to 23N80W at the coast of
Cuba, including in the Florida Keys.

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N15W, to 28N25W, to a 1019 mb high pressure center
that is near 27N33W, to a second 1018 mb high pressure center
that is near 25N45W, to 24N60W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N50W to 17N43W to 04N45W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N northward
between 30W and 60W.

A shear line stretching along 26N will dissipate by tonight.
High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will slide ESE
through the weekend. A cold front is expected to move across the
far northwest forecast waters from Monday night through
Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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