[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 14N17W to
09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W to 01N29W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the ITCZ mainly west of 30W.

A surface trough analyzed north of the ITCZ along 40W from 02N-
06N. Scattered showers are noted along this surface trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the northern
Gulf. An active outflow boundary is analyzed as a trough that
extends from 28N93W to 26N95W. Another trough extends from 25N95W
to a 1007 mb low near 20N96W. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms prevail north of 24N between 91W-96W. Scattered
moderate convection is also developing over the Florida Peninsula
reaching the adjacent Gulf waters mainly east of 82W. Smoke is
seen via satellite imagery across the Bay of Campeche. Winds are
generally gentle to moderate out of the south-southeast across the
eastern and central basin. Winds closer to the convective
activity can expect gusts near gale-force. For now, a frontal
boundary remains inland in south/southeast Texas.

Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front in Texas are expected to
continue through tonight. A thermal trough over the Yucatan
Peninsula will support pulses of fresh to strong winds over the
south central Gulf at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in
Mexico may reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of
Campeche during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge prevails across the Caribbean, with weak
surface ridging in the basin. Scattered moderate convection
continues across Panama and Costa Rica enhanced by the seasonal
surface trough that currently extends along 10N. Trade winds are
gentle to moderate across most of the Caribbean with fresh to
strong winds north of Honduras. Smoke is seen on satellite across
the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each
night. Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south central
Caribbean through the weekend. Smoke from ongoing agricultural
fires in Central America may create hazy skies and reduced
visibilities north of Honduras for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N40W to 25N53W to
25N66W, then becomes a surface trough from that point to 25N69W.
Scattered showers are within 50 nm of the front mainly north of
28N. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are moving across the
Straits of Florida and across the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high near
28N27W is ridging across most of the central and east Atlantic.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will slide ESE through
the weekend. The cold front will continue moving east across the
central Atlantic while weakening. The next cold front is expected
to cross the northwest Atlantic by Monday night through Wednesday
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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