[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed May 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 10N14W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 04N24W, 02N31W 02N34W and
03N41W. Another part of the ITCZ is along 01S44W 02N48W 02N49W.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 04N to 08N
between 12W and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 04N southward between 04W and 16W.

One surface trough is along 32W/33W from 09N southward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N
southward between 27W and 42W. A second surface trough is along
42W/43W from 09N southward. Little convective precipitation is
related directly to this trough. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 06N southward between 42W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from SE Louisiana to the Florida
Keys. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between 85W and 96W,
north of the line that runs from 25N85W to 28N96W. This area is
between the Florida Big Bend and the upper Texas Gulf coast.

Relatively weak high pressure across the region will allow for
moderate to fresh east to southeast winds to continue across the
forecast area through Sunday. A weak cold front is expected to
begin to move across the far northern sections of the NW and
north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night and Monday. A
trough will develop each night in the Yucatan Peninsula, and
support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the south
central Gulf of Mexico at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing
agricultural fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in
the western and SW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, across the eastern parts of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to 12N91W.  Rainshowers are
possible in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 19N
southward from 83W westward.

An upper level ridge passes through NE Venezuela, across
northern Colombia, to NW Costa Rica. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that
ended at 08/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.19 in
Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.09 in Bermuda.

Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south central
Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday. Smoke
from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America will maintain
hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras through
much of the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N47W to 30N53W 29N58W and to
28N63W. A surface trough continues from 28N63W to 27N70W, to
28N75W, and to the coast of Florida near 27N80W just to the east
of Lake Okeechobee. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 27N northward between 40W and 50W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the surface trough. Rainshowers are possible from
27N to 30N between 50W and 64W.

A surface ridge extends from 34N09W to a 1022 mb high pressure
center that is near 30N17W, to a second 1022 mb high pressure
center that is near 26N35W, to 23N54W, and to 24N70W.

The current surface trough that is along 27N will dissipate
gradually through Thursday. Relatively weak high pressure will
slide east-southeast through early next week, as a cold front
approaches the southeastern United States. The front is expected
to move across the far northwest forecast waters on Monday,
preceded by mainly fresh southwest winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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