[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 PM EDT Wed May 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to
00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 06N-02N
between 16W-24W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south
of the ITCZ from 01N-04S and west of 30W to the coast of Brazil.
Two surface troughs are also observed north of the ITCZ. The first
trough is noted along 45W and the other is along 35W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is seen across the basin with some scattered
showers noted moving into the Florida Panhandle. There is also
convection right along the southwest Florida coast near Naples
impacting the coastal waters. Otherwise, light to gentle easterly
winds are seen in the eastern Gulf, with moderate to fresh
southeasterly winds in the western Gulf, with some strong winds
indicated on the latest scatterometer pass.

High pressure will prevail across the region through Monday. A
weak cold front will enter the far NW Gulf this weekend. A trough
will develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, and support
pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the south central Gulf
at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico
could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of
Campeche over the next few days.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridge over the Caribbean is suppressing most
convection--however some thunderstorms driven by daytime heating
are noted across Cuba and Hispaniola. Strong convection is seen
across Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia with some of this activity
moving into the southwest Caribbean. Trade winds are moderate to
fresh north of Colombia, otherwise gentle to moderate trades are
seen across the rest of the basin.

Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun before
strengthening Monday. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in
Central America will maintain hazy skies and reduced visibilities
north of Honduras through much of the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N48W and
stretches southwest to near 27N72W. A surface trough is also seen
from 27N74W to the coast of Florida near 26N80W. Showers are seen
along the cold front. A pre-frontal trough is near 27N63W to near
22N70W. A small line of convection is noted in the central
Atlantic from 21N-20N between 34W-39W. Scattered showers are also
moving across the Cabo Verde Islands.

A trough along along 27N will gradually dissipate through Thursday,
with high pressure building in its wake. A cold front will move
into the far northwest forecast waters on Monday.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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