[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080908
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
508 AM EDT Wed May 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N33W
to the coast of Brazil near 03N43W. A surface trough is to the
north of the ITCZ from 05N46W to 03N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 45 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-32W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-08S between 32W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 08/0900 UTC, a dissipating stationary front extends from
West Palm Beach Florida to Tampa Florida. The front continues to
the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N86W to the coast of SE Louisiana
near 29N90W. 10-20 kt E to SE surface winds are over the Gulf
with strongest winds over the NW Gulf. In the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over Texas with axis along 102W. Upper level
diffluence E of the trough is producing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection over E Texas, and the north central
Gulf N of 26N between 87W-92W. Smoke and haze are over the Bay of
Campeche due to fires in Mexico. Some stations in Mexico along
the southern Bay of Campeche reporting visibility down to 4 nm.

East to southeast winds will prevail across the forecast area
through Sunday. A trough will develop each night over the Yucatan
Peninsula, and support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in
the south central Gulf at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing
fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and
the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection
remains inland over Guatemala, and W Honduras. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is over NW Colombia, and W
Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica. In the upper levels, a
ridge is over the Caribbean with upper level moisture.

Fresh easterly trade winds will prevail in the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday. Smoke from
ongoing agricultural fires in Central America will produce hazy
skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N53W and extends
W to near 27N70W. A dissipating stationary front continues to
West Palm Beach Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front E of 75W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the
E Atlantic near 26N32W.

The cold front will stall on Wednesday and dissipate by Thursday.
High pressure will build across the W Atlantic in the wake of the
front through Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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