[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 AM EDT Wed May 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 11N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N34W
to the coast of Brazil near 02N44W. A surface trough is to the
north of the ITCZ from 06N45W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 45 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-32W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-08S between 32W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 08/0300 UTC, a stationary front extends from West Palm
Beach Florida to Tampa Florida. The stationary front continues to
the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W to the central Gulf near 27N90W
to the coast of SE Louisiana near 29N91W. 10-20 kt E to SE
surface winds are over the Gulf with strongest winds over the NW
Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas
with axis along 102W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is
producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over E
Texas, and the north central Gulf N of 25N between 88W-95W.
Smoke and haze are over the Bay of Campeche due to fires in
Mexico. Some stations in Mexico along the southern Bay of Campeche
reporting visibility down to 4 nm.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the
remainder of the week and the weekend. A trough will develop each
night over the Yucatan Peninsula, and support pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds in the south central and southwest Gulf at
night. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico could continue
to reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of
Campeche for several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection
remains inland over Guatemala, and W Honduras. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is over NW Colombia, and W
Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica. In the upper levels, a
ridge is over the Caribbean with upper level moisture.

Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through mid week before
diminishing. Smoke from ongoing fires across Central America will
produce hazy skies and could reduce visibilities north of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N54W and extends W
to near 27N70W to West Palm Beach Florida near 27N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front E of 75W. A 1022
mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N51W. Another
1023 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 25N33W.

The cold front will stall on Wednesday and dissipate by Thursday.
High pressure will build across the W Atlantic in the wake of the
front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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