[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 00N34W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N43W. A trough is observed along the
ITCZ from 07N24W to 01N24W. Another surface trough is to the north
of the ITCZ from 09N37W to 01N38W. Isolated convection is seen
170 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 15W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is near the ITCZ to the coast of
Brazil from 01N-08S and west of 29W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level disturbance is inducing strong convection in the
northwest Gulf from 29N-26N between 91W-94W. This cluster of
storms could be producing severe weather along with frequent
lightning and gusty winds. In the eastern Gulf, a weakening
stationary front exits the Fort Myers, Florida coast near 26N82W
to 25N86W with no significant weather associated with it. A trough
is also observed in the Bay of Campeche from 23N94W to 19N94W.
Smoke and haze are also seen on satellite in the Bay of Campeche
due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico. Some stations in
Mexico along the southern Bay of Campeche reporting visibility
down to 4 nm. Light to gentle easterly winds are in the eastern
basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the western Gulf.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the
remainder of the week and the weekend. A trough will develop each
night over the Yucatan Peninsula, and support pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds in the south central and southwest Gulf at
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated thunderstorms are seen across the Greater Antilles and
moving into their coastal waters with low-topped showers moving
across the Lesser Antilles. Showers and thunderstorms are also
moving off the coast of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia into the
southwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the
eastern Caribbean, with fresh to strong east-northeast winds north
of Colombia. Moderate trades are seen in the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through mid week before
diminishing. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires across Central
America will produce hazy skies and could reduce visibilities
north of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N62W and extends
to the southwest in the western Atlantic near 28N76W. From 28N76W,
the boundary stalls as it extends to West Palm Beach, Florida
near 27N80W. Strong thunderstorms near this boundary are seen
across South Florida and entering the Atlantic waters west of 79W.
Showers are also seen along the cold front in the central
Atlantic within 80 nm of the front. A pre-frontal trough is seen
near 29N65W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Another surface trough is
in the central Atlantic near 25N42W to near 20N52W with clouds
seen along this trough but no significant weather. Two 1021 mb
highs are seen near 25N50W and 26N31W.

The cold front will stall from near 28N65W to 27N74W on Wednesday
and dissipate by Thursday. High pressure will build across the
forecast area in the wake of the front.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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