[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to
the Equator along 33W, to 02S38W, crossing the Equator, again,
along 40W, to just to the north of the Equator along 46W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 03N southward between 20W and 25W, between 30W and 35W, and
between 40W and 50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

One surface trough is along 25W/26W from 09N southward. Little
convective precipitation is related directly to this trough.
A second surface trough is along 36W/37W from 09N southward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side
of the second trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through eastern Florida along 27N/28N,
across Florida and parts of Lake Okeechobee, to the Florida
coast on the Gulf of Mexico side near 26N, to 25N87W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 24N to 27N from 90W eastward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 25N to 27N between 77W and 80W near the Bahamas and the
coast of Florida.

An upper level trough is along 94W/95W in the western part of
the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
covering the Gulf of Mexico from 26N to 29N between 91W and 95W.

The front will weaken and dissipate gradually today. High
pressure building in the wake of the front. A thermal trough
will develop each night in the Yucatan Peninsula, and support
pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the SW Gulf at night.
Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico may be
reducing the visibilities in the western and SW sections of
the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 94W/95W in the western part of
the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow is moving across
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level moisture is
streaming across parts of Honduras and Nicaragua, into the
Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward from Jamaica westward.

An upper level ridge passes through NE Venezuela, across
northern Colombia, to 08N86W about 100 nm off the coast of Costa
Rica. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
Caribbean Sea, away from the NW corner of the area.

24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that
ended at 07/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.47 in
Bermuda, 0.34 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.06 in Guadeloupe,
and 0.01 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands and in Veracruz in
Mexico.

Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras mid week, before
diminishing. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires across
Central America will produce hazy skies and it may be reducing
the visibilities north of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N63W, to 30N70W, to the eastern
coast of Florida along 27N/28N, and into the Gulf of Mexico.
The front is weakening with time. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of
the line that passes through 32N57W to 30N64W, and from 25N to
27N between 77W and 80W near the Bahamas and the coast of
Florida. Rainshowers are elsewhere within 90 nm on either side
of the line from 30N64W to 28N71W to 27N76W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N11W, through 32N17W, to a 1022 mb high pressure
center that is near 26N31W, to a second 1022 mb high pressure
center that is near 26N52W. The ridge continues from the second
1022 mb high pressure center toward the Bahamas.

The current cold front will dissipate through today, as it
shifts eastward across the waters north of 27N through mid week.
High pressure will build across the forecast area in the wake of
the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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