[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
722 PM EDT Sun May 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over land across Africa. A surface
trough extends from 09N15W to 01N15W. A second trough extends from
09N23W to 01N24W. Scattered showers prevail along the troughs.
The ITCZ is analyzed from 02N26W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 30N86W to 26N91W to 27N97W.
The combination of the front and a mid to upper-level trough over
the western Gulf is resulting in numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms over much of the NE, central and SW Gulf waters.
This activity is likely producing strong gusty winds and frequent
lightning.

The stationary front will begin to slowly move southeastward
across the eastern Gulf as a weak cold front on Mon through Tue
while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build northeast of the
region through Wed night, then shift east-southeast Thu through
Fri night as a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. Diurnal
trough development over the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses
of fresh to locally strong winds in the SW Gulf Mon through Thu.
Areas of haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could
reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. A line of moderate
convection has developed over the Yucatan Peninsula and is
spreading over portions of Honduras and adjacent waters.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across
the basin, with slightly stronger winds across the waters within
90 nm north of the Colombian coast.

The pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the
region and low pressure over Colombia will support strong easterly
winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras
through Tue. Winds will diminish and seas will gradually subside
through mid week as the high shifts eastward and the gradient
weakens over the area. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural
fires could reduce visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras region
through the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection prevail over the west Atlantic
mainly west of 77W. To the east, a 1022 mb high is centered near
27N56W. A cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from
31N26W to 24N45W. The remnants of a front were analyzed as a
surface trough that extends from 31N24W to 22N45W. No significant
convection is related to any of these features.

High pressure will shift eastward and weaken through Wed night.
Fresh south to southwest winds will prevail over the northern
offshore through Mon ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold
front will move into the northern waters on Mon night and continue
southward through Tue while weakening. High pressure will build
north of the region Wed through Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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