[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060440
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1240 AM EDT Mon May 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over land across Africa. A surface
trough extends from 09N17W to 01N17W. A second trough extends
from 05N27W to 02S27W. Scattered showers prevail along the
troughs. The ITCZ is analyzed from 02N26W to 00N50W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 03N-08S between 29W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N84W to the central
Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to S Texas near 26N97W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough
extends from the SE Gulf near 22N89W to the Yucatan Peninsula near
18N90W to Guatemala near 15N91W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 15N-24N between 86W-92W. In the upper levels, a
trough is over the western Gulf enhancing convection.

The front will begin to slowly move southeastward across the
eastern Gulf as a weak cold front Mon through Tue while weakening.
A high pressure ridge will build northeast of the region through
Wed night, then shift east-southeast Thu through Fri night as a
weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. Diurnal trough
development over the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of
fresh to locally strong winds in the SW Gulf Mon through Thu.
Areas of haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could
reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche
through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, the
Gulf of Honduras, and W Honduras. Widely scattered moderate
convection is also over N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge
is over the Caribbean with upper level moisture.

The pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the
region and low pressure over Colombia will support strong easterly
winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras
through Tue. Winds will diminish and seas will gradually subside
through mid week as the high shifts eastward and the gradient
weakens over the area. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural
fires could reduce visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras region
through the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N54W.
A stationary front extends across the eastern Atlantic from
31N25W to 26N39W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 27N25W.

High pressure will shift eastward and weaken through Wed night.
Fresh south to southwest winds will prevail over the northern
offshore through Mon ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold
front will move into the northern waters on Mon night and continue
southward through Tue while weakening. High pressure will build
north of the region Wed through Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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