[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sun May 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W to 01N20W and to the Equator along
24W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 24W, to just to
the south of the Equator along 30W, to 01S41W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward.

One surface trough is along 13W/14W from 09N southward. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 03N to 05N between 13W and 17W.
A second surface trough is along 22W/23W from 09N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 01N to
05N between 19W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north
central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Texas coast just
to the east of Sarita, and just to the south of Corpus Christi
and Port Aransas. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
in the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico from 26N to 32N between 80W
and 84W, within a 30 nm radius of 27.5N86.5W, and in the western
part of the area from 20N to 25N between 92W and the coast of
Mexico. Thunder, strong gusty winds, and frequent lightning are
accompanying the precipitation.

The current cold front will continue to move slowly,
southeastward, across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from Monday
into Tuesday, while weakening. A surface ridge will build
northeast of the region through mid week. Diurnal trough
development in the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of
fresh to locally strong winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico from
Monday through Thursday. Smoke and haze from ongoing
agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce the visibilities in the
western and SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge passes through NE Venezuela, across
northern Colombia, and into NW sections of Costa Rica. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. The upper
level SW wind flow that is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
is due partly to the influence of an upper level Gulf of Mexico
trough that reaches the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and the SW wind
flow that is on the eastern side of it. Rainshowers are possible
in the eastern sections of Honduras and in the northern parts of
Nicaragua.

24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that
ended at 05/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.16 in
Trinidad, 0.08 in Guadeloupe and in Trinidad, and 0.02 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico.

The pressure gradient, between high pressure northeast of the
region near 28N56W and low pressure in Colombia, will support
strong easterly winds in the south central Caribbean Sea and in
the Gulf of Honduras through Tuesday. The wind speeds will
diminish and the sea heights will subside gradually through mid
week as the high shifts eastward and the gradient weakens in the
area. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires may reduce
the visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
13N between Africa and 55W. A cold front passes through 32N26W
to 30N30W to 26N40W and 25N43W. A surface trough continues from
25N43W to 23N46W and 23N49W. A surface trough, that remains from
an already-dissipated cold front during the last 24 hours, is
about 100 nm to the SE of the cold front. Rainshowers are
possible in broken multilayered clouds, that are to the north of
the line that passes through 32N22W 24N35W 22N50W beyond 32N51W.

An upper level trough is along 32N67W 24N70W. Rainshowers are
possible from 20N northward between 61W and 70W.

A current 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 28N56W will
shift eastward and weaken through Tuesday. Fresh S to SW winds
will prevail in the northern offshore waters from today through
Monday, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will
move into the northern waters on Monday night, and it will
continue southward through Tuesday, while weakening. High
pressure will build north of the region from Wednesday through
Thursday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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