[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EDT Sun May 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N13W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 02S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 00N-04N between 17W-22W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 03N-03S between 33W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05/0900 UTC, a squall line extends across N Florida near
31N83W to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 45 nm of the squall line. A cold front
extends from SE Mississippi near 30N89W to S Texas near 28N97W.
Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the warm sector
of the front from 26N-29N between 87W-90W, and from 16N-28N
between 94W-101W. This convection is mostly due to upper level
diffluence. 10-15 kt SE return flow is E of the cold front.
Strongest winds are along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Thunderstorms associated with a squall line in the NE Gulf will
produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. A weak cold
front in the NW Gulf will become stationary tonight and weaken to
a trough Mon. Weak ridging northeast of the region will produce
gentle winds and placid sea conditions for the next several days.
Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could
reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula from 17N-19N between 87W-91W.
Scattered showers are over Central America, the SW Caribbean, and
the central Caribbean, S of 17N between 72W-87W. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean E of 81W.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will support strong easterly winds in
the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Mon.
Winds will diminish and decrease in coverage Tue and Wed as the
high shifts eastward and the gradient weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N57W. A
pair of fronts are over the central Atlantic. A cold front extends
from 31N31W to 26N44W to 30N52W. A dissipating cold front extends
from 31N28W to 25N37W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
fronts. A 1023 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
27N24W.

Expect for the cold fronts in the central Atlantic to continue
moving east while weakening. High pressure centered near 28N57W
will shift eastward and weaken through Mon. A weak cold front will
approach northern forecast waters on Mon, then push eastward into
the west- central Atlantic Tue through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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