[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 06N15W. A surface trough extends from 08N16W
to 03N17W. The monsoon trough resumes west of this feature from
03N18W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted with
the surface trough between 13W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the easternmost parts of
Texas supporting a low pressure system currently centered near
32N92W. A squall line extends across the north-central Gulf waters
from 30N89W to 27N91W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
north of 27N between 86W-92W. To the southwest, a surface trough
extends along 95W from 21N-23N with scattered showers. A shortwave
trough aloft extends along 83W, enhancing convection across
eastern Florida. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate southeasterly winds across the whole basin.

The squall line will rapidly move across the rest of the central
and northeast Gulf through tonight. A weak cold front along the
Texas coast will move across the NW and north-central Gulf
tonight and become stationary through Sun night and weaken to a
trough Mon. Otherwise, weak ridging northeast of the Gulf will
produce gentle winds and placid sea conditions into next week.
Diurnal trough development over the Yucatan Peninsula will support
pulses of fresh winds in the SW Gulf next week. Smoke and haze
from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce
visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An shortwave trough aloft extends along 83W enhancing convection
across Cuba and adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted over Costa Rica and Panama, affecting their adjacent
Caribbean waters south of 10N. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across
the basin. A small area of strong winds prevails south of 14N
between 74W-78W.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain strong
easterly winds across the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras through Mon, at which time winds will diminish and
decrease in areal coverage as the high pressure shifts eastward
and the pressure gradient weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A shortwave trough aloft extends along 83W, enhancing convection
across eastern Florida. This activity is reaching the west
Atlantic waters, mainly west of 79W. A 1022 mb surface high is
centered near 29N61W. To the east, a pair of cold fronts are
entering the central Atlantic waters. The first extends from
31N29W to 24N41W, while the second one is from 31N34W to 28N42W to
31N52W. No significant convection is noted with any of these
fronts.

Expect for the cold fronts in the central Atlantic to continue
moving east while weakening. The high pressure southeast of
Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds north
of Hispaniola through Sun evening. The high will shift eastward
Mon through Tue as developing low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic
coast pushes a cold front toward the northern forecast waters.
This cold front will move southeast into the northern offshore
waters Tue, then continue crossing the west- central Atlantic Tue
night through Wed night and dissipate Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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