[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, to
the Equator along 27W, to 01N32W, to the Equator along 36W, to
02S42W, to 01S45W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 19W
eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 05N
southward from 20W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the easternmost parts of
Texas. A squall line extends from SW Louisiana for about 250 nm
into the Gulf of Mexico, along 29N93W 27N93W 26N95W. Scattered
strong rainshowers are in the water from 27N northward between
89W and 92W.

An organized line of strong thunderstorms will continue moving
across the NW Gulf of Mexico today. A cold front will sag
southward into the NW Gulf of Mexico late tonight and on Sunday.
The front will become stationary briefly, before continuing
across the NE Gulf of Mexico through Monday. Diurnal trough
development in the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of
fresh winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico next week. Smoke and haze
from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce the
visibilities in the western and SW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from NW Cuba to central and
eastern coastal sections of Honduras. Only one small area of
rainshowers is evident, about 60 nm to the NW of Grand Cayman
Island.

An upper level ridge passes through NE Venezuela, across
northern Colombia, into the eastern Pacific Ocean to 07N84W.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are across parts of Nicaragua, and in the coastal
waters of NE Nicaragua and adjacent sections of the easternmost
parts of Honduras, from 13N to 16N between 81W and 84W.

24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that
ended at 04/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.16 in
Trinidad, 0.05 in Guadeloupe, and 0.02 in Freeport in the
Bahamas.

The pressure gradient, between Bermuda high pressure and low
pressure over Colombia, will maintain strong easterly winds
across the south central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras
into early next week. Elsewhere, fresh trades across much of the
region will diminish gradually early next week, as high pressure
weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb surface low pressure center is near 32N77W. Scattered
to numerous strong rainshowers are from 31N to 34N between 72W
and 76W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 18N northward between 25W and 60W. A first cold front
passes through 32N30W to 28N35W to 25N41W. A second cold front
is at least 240 nm to the NW of the first cold front. The second
cold front passes through 32N36W to 29N44W to 31N51W. The front
becomes stationary at 31N51W, and it continues beyond 32N53W.
A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 30N63W. Broken
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 30 nm on
either side of the line that runs from 28N30W to 25N36W to
21N44W to 19N50W, related to a remnant cloud line from an
already-dissipated frontal boundary. Broken multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the
line that runs from 31N29W to 27N35W to 25N40W to 24N45W, with
the first cold front. Broken multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are to the north of the line that passes through
32N32W to 27N40W to 27N47W beyond 32N55W.

A high pressure center, that is about 180 nm to the SE of
Bermuda, will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds
north of Hispaniola through Sunday evening. The high pressure
will shift eastward from Monday through Tuesday, as developing
low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast pushes a cold front
toward the northern forecast waters. This cold front will move
southeastward into the northern offshore waters on Tuesday. The
front will continue crossing the west-central Atlantic Ocean
from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net