[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050501
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EDT Sun May 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to
02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 01N-05N between 16W-21W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-03S between 34W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05/0300 UTC, a squall line extends across N Florida near
31N84W to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 45 nm of the squall line. A cold front
extends from SE Louisiana near 29N91W to S Texas near 28N97W.
Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the warm sector
of the front from 26N-29N between 88W-91W, and from 16N-27N
between 94W-100W. This convection is mostly due to upper level
diffluence. 10-15 kt SE return flow is E of the cold front.
Strongest winds are along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The squall line will rapidly move across the rest of the central
and northeast Gulf tonight. A weak cold front along the Texas
coast will move across the NW and north-central Gulf tonight and
become stationary through Sun night and weaken to a trough Mon.
Otherwise, weak ridging northeast of the Gulf will produce gentle
winds and placid sea conditions into next week. Diurnal trough
development over the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of
fresh winds in the SW Gulf next week. Smoke and haze from ongoing
agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the
western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula from 17N-19N between 87W-91W.
Scattered showers are over Central America, the SW Caribbean, and
the central Caribbean, S of 17N between 72W-87W. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean E of 81W.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will maintain strong easterly winds
across the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras
through Mon, at which time winds will diminish and decrease in
areal coverage as the high pressure shifts eastward and the
pressure gradient weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N57W. A
pair of fronts are over the central Atlantic. A cold front extends
from 31N31W to 26N44W to 30N52W. A dissipating cold front extends
from 31N28W to 25N37W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
fronts. A 1023 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
27N24W.

Expect for the cold fronts in the central Atlantic to continue
moving east while weakening. The high pressure southeast of
Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds north
of Hispaniola through Sun evening. The high will shift eastward
Mon through Tue as developing low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic
coast pushes a cold front toward the northern forecast waters.
This cold front will move southeast into the northern offshore
waters Tue, then continue crossing the west-central Atlantic Tue
night through Wed night and dissipate Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net