[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 AM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by
Saturday night. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce
gale-force winds over the waters east of Veracruz and Tampico by
Sunday afternoon. Seas are expected to be 9 to 13 ft. These
conditions will prevail through early Monday. Please refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
14N48W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 00N29W to the
coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 13W-33W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb
high that is centered over the West Atlantic. Gentle to moderate
east-southeasterly winds are noted in scatterometer data through
most of the area. Fresh winds are noted across the western Gulf
with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf. Mid to upper
level ridging continues to suppress significant convection at this
time. However, light showers are moving northeast just off the
southwest Florida coast and isolated showers near the eastern Gulf
Coast.

High pressure is expected to shift east on Saturday ahead of a
cold front moving off the Texas coast Saturday night. Fresh to
strong N winds will follow the front Sunday over the western
Gulf, possibly reaching gale force over the western Gulf waters
from Tampico to Veracruz Sunday night. Refer to the section above
for details. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, and
some with strong gusty winds, are expected along and near this
upcoming cold front that will sweep across the basin. Winds and
seas will gradually diminish through early next week as the front
shifts to the southeast of the area.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends from southern Haiti near 18N73W into the central
Caribbean near 16N79W. Scattered low-topped showers are occurring
along this feature and into most of Hispaniola in addition to
Puerto Rico. Showers are also moving off of Panama and Colombia
into the southern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades continue
across the majority of the basin with light to gentle winds in the
central Caribbean.

The trough will dissipate tonight. Winds over the south central
Caribbean will range between moderate and fresh through early next
week. Otherwise, generally moderate trade winds will persist
across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through the
middle of next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An occluded system continues to move through the western
Atlantic. A 1015 mb low is centered near 25N66W with an occluded
front stretching northeast from the low. From the occlusion, a
cold front enters the waters near 31N63W and stretches to the
south near 21N66W. From that point, the tail end of the boundary
becomes stationary and stretches into the northern Dominican
Republic. Showers and thunderstorms are noted along and east of
the front west of 54W. A trough behind the front is also observed
from 27N65W to 25N75W. Showers are seen along this trough.
Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin anchored by a 1030 mb high near 32N37W. A 1017 mb low
continues to remain near the Canary Islands near 29N17W. Scattered
showers are observed near this low.

The cold front will continue to stall and weaken through Saturday
night. High pressure will build off the U.S. east coast through
Sunday, then continue east ahead of the next cold front expected
to move off the northeast Florida coast on Tuesday.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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